Preakness Stakes: Epicenter looks for instant compensation after Derby defeat

Instant fame and just under $1million in prize-money will greet the winner of the 144th running of the Preakness Stakes at Pimlico on Saturday evening. 

The second leg of the Triple Crown, termed the "The Run for the Black-Eyed Susans", separates the wheat from the chaff in the three-year-old division. We might have found out who the Churchill Downs conqueror was, but that result rarely solidifies a champion. Pimlico, which has a strong front-running bias, presents a different test.

Unfortunately, connections of Kentucky Derby winner Rich Strike have opted to stick to their original plan and bypass this race in preference of the Belmont Stakes next month, therefore foregoing their chance of gaining an unlikely Triple Crown. He wouldn’t have been favourite or my selection, but both myself and the market would have treated him with more respect than when he was sent off at huge odds two weeks ago.

We will, however, see Derby runner-up Epicenter again. The Steve Asmussen-trained colt arguably ran the best race of any horse at Churchill given how close he sat to the frenetic early gallop. Summer Is Tomorrow led the 20-strong field through the first half of the Derby in a record time and Epicenter was just five places behind. The fact that he sustained his effort to finish second is extremely impressive.

Indeed, the five horses ahead of Epicenter in the early stages faded as they entered the straight and finished tenth or worse. Meanwhile, Epicenter battled against the threatening Zandon for glory, only to succumb to the rag of the field, who was ridden extremely patiently and sat last after the first turn.

With a better trip Epicenter would have won the Derby and, with no Zandon or Rich Strike in the Preakness, he warrants short-priced favouritism. A quick turnaround from the first to the second leg of the Triple Crown generally presents a problem, but I don’t think that will affect his performance on Saturday. He had easy prep races (slow pace and quickened) in both the Risen Star and Louisiana Derby prior to his Churchill effort and should remain a relatively fresh horse.

This pace setup is sure to suit him far better, too, as they won’t be going 45 seconds through the half! Epicenter figures to sit third behind likely pacesetters Early Voting and Armagnac, and a similar display would make him extremely tough to hold. He should be around 1.65 in the market.

Armagnac doesn’t have the form to win the Preakness, albeit he impressed when he was last seen at Santa Anita, so let’s talk about Early Voting. Chad Brown’s unexposed three-year-old could be the wildcard in this field as we’ve only seen him three times on the track. All of his races have come at Aqueduct, but he’s proven he’s more than capable of contesting a Triple Crown race.

His Withers Stakes victory was spectacular, despite the fact that he didn’t beat the strongest field, and he gave it a good go from the front in the Wood Memorial when last seen. Early Voting couldn’t hold the late challenge of Mo Donegal, who will be fancied for the Belmont in a couple of weeks, but he ran a great race. A cheap lead would make him a real threat to Epicenter, but the likely pace pressure from Armagnac could soften him up for the stalkers.

Three other runners worth mentioning are Simplification, Creative Minister and Secret Oath. The former had a great campaign at Gulfstream earlier in this year before taking fourth in the Derby two weeks ago. He was suited by the pace that day and flew home late, so this trip might be a touch on the short side. Gate one also presents a problem.

Creative Minister warrants respect for Ken McPeek after back-to-back victories. He hasn’t proved that he’s quick enough for a race like this, but he might have the most untapped potential in this field. 

Finally, you have to consider Secret Oath. She warranted front-page stories after her Kentucky Oaks win for veteran trainer D Wayne Lukas and now bids to beat the boys. Her sole start out of fillies-only races saw her finish third in the Arkansas Derby, which wasn’t a bad effort, but much more is needed here. If she is to prove victorious, Secret Oath would become just the seventh filly to win the Preakness. Epicenter stands in her way.

Recommended bet

Epicenter @ 2.06