Newmarket Tips: Tom Collins has one recommended trade on Thursday

2.25 Newmarket, 6f fillies’ handicap

Tarhib will be well-supported in this sprint handicap on the back of her visually impressive victory at Yarmouth, but there are reasons to believe that she will struggle to justify her 5lb penalty here.

Not only does she now encounter better opposition off a higher handicap mark, but she will also run on ground described as quicker than good to soft for just the second time in her career. Jockey Jim Crowley was keen to mention that she handled cut underfoot last time, and her sole effort on good ground saw her beat just five of 18 rivals.

That poor performance came at Newmarket, which might be a coincidence, but certainly doesn’t give you too much hope that she appreciates the undulations here. Tarhib has also had numerous breaks in her career, which would indicate that she needs time between her races or she’s relatively fragile. As a result, a nine-day turnaround has to be a worry.

Bellosa ran to marks of 106 and 105 last season and is therefore the class of the field. However, she has disappointed in four runs this term and it is difficult to have much faith in her returning to something like her best despite the addition of blinkers.

Course winner Farhh To Shy warrants respect but surprisingly drops back to 6f for the first time in 15 months, so I prefer the Michael Dods-trained Azure Blue. This filly has performed consistently all year - she has achieved a mark of 90 or higher in four of her last five outings - and was unsuited by the front-running bias at York last time. 

It is clear that she possesses more talent than her mark of 89 suggests, and Michael Dods has a solid 21% strike-rate in the last fortnight. Providing there is a solid pace for her to chase throughout the early portion of this contest, Azure Blue will prove tough to hold under Paul Mulrennan.

Recommended trade

Azure Blue (2.25 Newmarket) @ 5