Newbury Tips: three confident selections for Tom Collins on Saturday

Britain’s big Flat hope, the unbeaten Baaeed, will make his seasonal reappearance in the Group 1 Lockinge at Newbury on Saturday.

Rated 125 and considered one of the best horses across the globe according to Longines World Rankings, Baaeed will look to notch a seventh straight success by fending off a group of largely inferior rivals under Jim Crowley in the top-level mile event. 

There is very little to put you off his chance of winning this year’s Lockinge, but his dominance is reflected in his short price. Perhaps the play is to back Alcohol Free or, at a massive price, Sir Busker each-way, but that’s not really my punting style. There are three horses I like on the Newbury card, though, beginning with a horse that I have followed since his debut.

1.35 Newbury, 6f Carnarvon Stakes

You don’t need to be a paddock judge to appreciate Ehraz’s looks. This striking chestnut fills my eye every time I see him on the track, and he lived up to his lofty reputation when he recorded a facile success on just his second career outing at Ascot last year. He recorded fast sectionals in each of the final three furlongs that day despite minimal urging from the saddle and appeared to be a horse going places. 

Richard Hannon then sent him to the Acomb, a race that unfortunately didn’t end well. Not only was he disadvantaged by sitting last behind a slow gallop on a track that doesn’t suit hold-up horses, but he also returned a dirty scope. Put a line through that effort.

Ehraz’s comeback run was far more promising than it looks on paper. Again unfavoured by the small field and that he raced away from the rail bias at Ascot, Ehraz cruised through the Pavilion Stakes like a proper Group horse before curling up and weakening under pressure as Go Bears Go battled on gamely. Sure to come on for that effort, he is fancied to make amends in this more suitable contest.

Selection: Ehraz @ 5.8

2.45 Newbury, 1m2f London Gold Cup Handicap

We could see another winner on the card for Shadwell and Jim Crowley as they are represented by Israr, an extremely well-bred son of Muharaar out of star mare Taghrooda. I’m confident that he has the most potential in this field - he could be a Group horse running in a handicap - but he looked immature on his most recent start and might just lack the maturity to show his best at this point of his career.

The well-handicapped Inverness, Marsoul and Zoom are all worth watching ahead of future engagements, but Surrey Mist is the selection in this year’s edition of the London Gold Cup. 

He looked all at sea on his debut last season and still showed signs of inexperience when he made a winning return at Lingfield this term. That was an awful race, albeit the second has won since, so it was nice to see him take a notable leap forward at Kempton last time out.

Surrey Mist looked a completely different proposition that day - he clearly learned plenty from his race at Lingfield - and can take another step in the right direction now that he returns to turf.

Selection: Surrey Mist @ 7.2

3.55 Newbury, 6f conditions stakes

Brocklesby winners don’t always progress throughout their career - precocious two-year-olds generally don’t have as much potential as back-end types - but Persian Force looked an anomaly when he won this year’s edition of Doncaster’s juvenile sprint. 

Heavily backed into favouritism and extremely relaxed in the preliminaries ahead of his debut, Persian Force oozed class on the track and didn’t have to be asked for maximum effort as he romped clear to win by four-and-three-quarter lengths ahead of two subsequent winners. 

Rossa Ryan said they might give him a break after that effort and right he was. Persian Force returns after a 49-day layoff and takes an intermediate step into a conditions race before jumping up to Group level. Although he faces three intriguing rivals, including two well-regarded debutants, I would be disappointed if he was beaten.

Selection: Persian Force @ 1.72

Recommended bets

Ehraz (1.35 Newbury) @ 5.8
Surrey Mist (2.45 Newbury) @ 7.2
Persian Force (3.55 Newbury) @ 1.72