Musidora Stakes: Tom Collins takes a deep dive into York's Oaks trial

What would the Musidora be without a John Gosden-trained favourite? The Newmarket trainer has saddled six of the last seven jollies and will continue that trend courtesy of Emily Upjohn.

Regularly training the favourite for a lofty Group 3 prize is far from coincidental. Trainers are generally creatures of habit and Gosden, who now holds a joint license with his son Thady, firmly believes that the Musidora, which was first run in 1961, is the best possible trial for potential Oaks candidates. The long straight puts extra emphasis on stamina, not least because they always get racing early, and the experience gained from running on the Knavesmire can prove crucial for Classic contenders.

Despite entering the winner’s enclosure after victories for The Fugue (2012), Star Of Seville (2015), So Mi Dar (2016) and Shutter Speed (2017), Gosden’s previously impeccable record has taken a hit recently with defeats for Highgarden (2018), Sparkle Roll (2019) and Ricetta (2020), all of whom failed to hit the expected heights.

Perhaps Emily Upjohn is the filly that Gosden needs to stay in the Group 1 hunt this season - Charlie Appleby and Aidan O’Brien, both of whom are represented in this race, have dominated over the last 18 months and show no signs of relenting. As short as 4.8 for the Oaks in just over three weeks’ time, defeat here would be considered a major surprise despite her inexperience.

The daughter of Sea The Stars has done nothing but impress in two career starts. She showed guts and determination despite notable signs of greenness, on her debut at Wolverhampton and readily improved on that with a decisive nine-and-a-half-length Sandown success 19 days ago.

A case can be made for her being flattered by the winning margin as she raced prominently on a track that favours forward-going sorts, but she seemed to be hitting full stride just when Frankie Dettori eased off in the closing stages and an RPR of 106 sets the clear standard here.

The average rating required to win a Musidora over the last ten years is 105, so, if you believe that she wasn’t flattered by her most recent success, Emily Upjohn has already proved that she has the ability to plunder this fillies’ prize. That can’t be said for any of her opponents.

Life Is Dreams, an unbeaten daughter of Dubawi who hails from Charlie Appleby’s Moulton Paddocks, is the clear second choice in the market despite running to just 82 on debut at Newbury. There’s a strong possibility that she will take a big step forward and there was talk about the Oaks straight after her debut success, but she has to improve two stone to beat the aforementioned Emily Upjohn. 

Given she’s available at 3.95, that indicates she has around a 25% chance of winning compared to Emily Upjohn’s 55%. That disparity clearly factors in potential improvement and the strength of trainer and jockey form for Life Is Dreams, but doesn’t accurately represent form claims, in my opinion.

The Ralph Beckett-trained Luna Dorado boasts a very similar profile with just a debut victory to her name. She ran to a mark of 83 that day and has been subsequently purchased by Team Valor, but will need to prove her capability of handling good ground (debut win on soft) as well as stamina over an extra two-and-a-half furlongs. 

This daughter of Golden Horn is slightly overlooked in the market and could be a place play, but she has it all to do from a win perspective. The same could be said for Ching Shih, who will be fitted with a first-time hood and has question marks about the trip and good ground.

Ryan Moore and Aidan O’Brien, who have dominated all the Classic trials so far, team up on The Algarve, who completes the line-up. An official rating of 88 strongly suggests she’s not good enough, but it would be folly to ignore her given the form of the Ballydoyle three-year-old string.

She looked babyish in three starts last year over inadequate trips and will relish this greater test of stamina. Her pedigree shouldn’t be overlooked either - The Algarve is a daughter of Triple Crown winner American Pharoah out of Imagine, who won the 2001 Oaks for O’Brien. Her progeny don’t tend to run further than 1m2f, but Imagine herself was untried over further than a mile until her Epsom success.

The Algarve is the biggest danger to Emily Upjohn as she bids to follow in the hoofprints of stablemate Snowfall, who won the Musidora before scooting home in the Oaks 12 months ago. However, the John and Thady Gosden-trained filly might just have too much firepower and should justify favouritism.

Recommended bet

Emily Upjohn @ 1.8