Millar's Method: How will the ground affect affect your horses at Cheltenham

The Cheltenham Festival is now just two-weeks away, and invariably attention starts to turn to how the ground might ride. 

For four of the last five years the ground for the traditional curtain raiser, the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle, has been soft; and with rain a virtual constant throughout February it’s surely a strong likelihood that it will be soft ground once again. 

But, could this prevailing wet weather actually prevent the chance of any watering of the track and therefore lead to slightly better ground for day one?

I’ve taken a look through the week and found a few horses on each day whose chance of victory will be strongly impacted by the conditions.

DAY 1

4.10 Close Brothers Mares’ Hurdle

Lossiemouth was hugely impressive when landing the International Hurdle on Cheltenham Trials Day, the ground on that occasion was good-soft and she was able to demonstrate a smart turn of foot to quicken away from a useful if not vintage field.

If a sound surface prevails she looks hard to oppose on all known form. 

Soft ground itself does not pose a problem to her; she has won under those conditions numerous times, including when landing the 2023 Triumph Hurdle. But soft ground would make this 2m4f more of a stamina test and would potentially blunt her speed.

If soft ground is the order of the day it would make last year’s runner-up Love Envoi of real interest; she thrives on testing ground, with six of her eight career wins coming on ground described as soft or heavy. She’s a strong stayer at the trip and will get closer than the ten-lengths she was beaten in the International Hurdle last month. 

Others on Day 1

Better ground would bring Daddy Long Legs (Supreme Hurdle) into my thinking in an open looking contest, he was impressive on decent ground on debut and has looked to struggle on winter ground on his two most recent starts. I would also have Tellherthename (Supreme Hurdle) firmly on my radar at a big price; he‘s a slick and accurate jumper but will be compromised on slower ground. 

It would also suit Kilbeg King (National Hunt Chase) he showed his best form at Punchestown on spring ground last season and has shaped well in novice chases on less favourable ground.

On genuine soft ground my enthusiasm for my long-time fancy Chianti Classico (Ultima Chase) would be magnified, though in truth I’ll be with him whatever the conditions.

In the feature race of the day, The Champion Hurdle, would increase the chance outsider Nemean Lion has of finishing in the places, he has good form on heavy ground so connections will be praying for the skies to open.   

DAY 2

2.10 Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase 

I said after his Dublin Racing Festival win that Fact To File would win whichever of the novice chases he was aimed at. Willie Mullins has suggested that this will be his target (though he has history with changing his mind) and I stand by my initial thoughts. However, if the ground was to ride more testing it would make his task that bit harder, he’s a strong traveller and would need to relax sufficiently to see out this trip on genuinely soft going. 

The most likely beneficiary, if Fact To File were to fluff his lines on soft ground, might well be Monty’s Star he doesn’t have the class of the favourite but thrives when stamina is at a premium and posted a career best when winning a beginners chase at Punchestown on heavy ground in December. 

Others on Day 2

On good to soft or better ground Ballyadam (Coral Cup) would rate as one of my strongest handicap fancies of the week, a staying on fifth two years in a row in the County Hurdle he has looked to be crying out for this step up in trip. A sound surface will help him quicken off the home turn.

On the other side of the coin I will be interested in Hardy Du Seuil (Grand Annual) if the ground is soft. I’ve been waiting for him to step up in trip but a strongly run, large field handicap on soft ground might just suit him well. He’s on a competitive mark but will need luck in running given he’s often held up in his races.

DAY 3

2.50 Ryanair Chase

The form of Banbridge’s win in the Silviniaco Conti Chase received a notable boost when Pic D’Ohry, who was two-lengths behind him at Kempton, comfortably accounted for L’Homme Presse and Ahoy Senor at Ascot on his latest start. It’s common knowledge that Joseph O’Brien’s former festival winner (2022 Martin Pipe) is severely compromised on slow underfoot conditions, if he does get a sound surface he looks to hold outstanding credentials in an open affair.

From an ante-post perspective I’ll be hoping soft ground prevails for my ante-post selection Fugitif, he ran a great trial for this when flying up the hill to finish a never nearer third in the Grade One Clarence House Chase on Trials Day. The two-mile trip there is a long way short of his optimum and part-owner, Carl Hinchy confirmed on the Millar’s Mover Podcast that he is highly likely to be fitted with cheek-pieces for this assignment. If getting his conditions he looks capable of upsetting some higher profile rivals.

Others on Day 3

Gordon Elliott hasn’t been shy in voicing his high-opinion of Brighterdaysahead (Mares’ Novice’ Hurdle) and I agree she looks very special, she’s a stronger finisher and has shown all of her hurdles form is on slow ground, she could be vulnerable if faster conditions arrived.

Three-time course winner Ginny’s Destiny (Turners) has improved with every run and is an exceptional jumper. I worry he might just lack class on a sound surface but if getting soft ground he will take some passing up the hill.

Better ground might enable Sir Gerhard (Stayers) to show his abundant class in a race lacking a bona-fide star, but on slower ground I’d have reservations over his stamina.

DAY 4

3.30 Cheltenham Gold Cup

It’s hard to see that Galopin Des Champs has any strong preference for ground conditions. While he was beaten at Punchestown last spring I find it hard to believe it was drier underfoot conditions that inhibited him as he also ran below form there at the start of this season on slow ground.

If you were looking for a weakness you could maybe argue that his more prominent running style, on soft ground, in a Gold Cup with plenty of pace might leave him vulnerable to a strong finisher who excels on soft ground. But is there such a horse in the field?

Gerri Colombe will be suited by slower ground and finished strongly in the Brown Advisory Chase last year, but I’m convinced his jumping lacks fluency and I struggle to see any line of form that suggests he is of Gold Cup class. L’Homme Presse will appreciate returning to a left-handed track and slower ground would suit him well, but personally I find it concerning how lacklustre he’s looked in the early stages of both races this season, this will be run at a frenetic pace from the flag-fall and he might well find himself with too much to do in the closing stages. 

Corach Rambler loves Cheltenham and in both 2022 and 2023 has thrived when coming home powerfully off a strong-pace in the Ultima Chase, this of course demands more but he’ll once again finish strongly and soft ground suited him well last year.

If the ground isn’t so testing I’ll be keeping Shishkin firmly onside, in hindsight it’s remarkable that a horse who clearly stays as well as he does was able to show such pace as a novice when winning the 2021 Arkle. Galopin Des Champs might well be a star in a Gold Cup field made up of very good horses, but I remain convinced that Shishkin is potentially every bit as good.

For those wanting to chance one at a bigger price Hewick would look to be the one on a sound surface, he came from a long way back to win the King George and was still in there pitching when taking a heavy fall two-out in the Gold Cup last year on ground that wouldn’t have been optimal.

Others on Day 4

Sir Gino looks banker material in the Triumph Hurdle but if soft ground was on offer I’d quietly fancy Bunting to reverse the Spring Juvenile form with his stable mates; Kargese, Storm Heart and Majborough, he looked raw at Leopardstown and the long home straight on the new course will allow him to get organised and finish well.

Iberico Lord might still be well handicapped but Favour And Fortune is a pacey novice with plenty of experience he’s run well the last twice on ground he wouldn’t have liked and looks well treated off 138 if getting a sound surface – though from an ante-post perspective I hope he’ll take his chance in the Supreme!

A sound surface would give Dinoblue (mares chase) less of a stamina test and would allow her to effectively utilise her two-mile pace as she steps up in trip.
The festival closes with the Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys’ Hurdle; if truly testing ground is on offer then I see the appeal of Built By Ballymore, but he needs it to be closer to heavy and might get outpaced even if it’s soft. On a better surface Doddiethegreat (who might struggle to get into the Coral Cup) looks well handicapped on 132 and was the eye-catcher in the Betfair Hurdle, he’s high on my short list for the finale.