Handicap Verdict: Ross Millar pinpoints this week's interesting movers

Welcome to the third edition of my column which reviews revised handicap marks. A good few have caught my eye this week, so we might as well dive straight in.

GOING UP

High-class bumper performer Good Risk At All has taken a while to adapt to hurdling and is yet to shed his maiden tag over timber after three starts. That doesn’t tell the full story, though. 

The Sam Thomas-trained grey was sent off a short-priced favourite on his seasonal reappearance at Chepstow, but he jumped poorly and finished second. He then faced mission impossible on his next assignment as he bumped into the highly-regarded Jonbon off level weights at Newbury. There is no question that Jonbon’s six-length winning margin flattened Good Risk At All.

Adequate jumping was the story of his handicap debut at Warwick. Good Risk At All found himself outpaced as the pace lifted down the backstraight and he temporarily got stuck in a pocket as they turned for home. He took a while to regain his momentum but flashed home in eyecatching fashion to be beaten a neck, which didn’t appear likely as he jumped the last hurdle adrift.

A 3lb rise in the weights to a mark of 127 surely underestimates his ability and a longer trip will certainly make his jumping less of a hindrance.

Paisley Park and Aidan Coleman winning at Ascot in 2018. Julian Herbert

There were joyous scenes when Aidan Coleman unleashed Paisley Park to make a winning run from an unpromising position in the Cleeve Hurdle at Cheltenham on Saturday. Three hours earlier, Coleman found himself in a similar position aboard Hystery Bere in the 2m1f handicap hurdle.

Unlike Paisley Park, Hystery Bere didn’t forfeit ground at the start. In fact, he raced prominently in the early stages before finding the pace rather hot. It was thanks to slick jumping that he kept in touch with the main pack, but he finished to good effect once he faced the hill and took third position. 

The handicapper has raised him 2lb to a mark of 130, which seems fair given he narrowly failed to concede 6lb to the now 134-rated Hudson De Grugy on his British debut in January last year.  The Imperial Cup at Sandown is an obvious target for this progressive hurdler, who is surely still on a workable mark.

You can make a strong case for Charlie Deutsch being the best jockey so far this season - his ability to get chasers into a rhythm is second to none - and his talent was well advertised by his ride on Funambule Sivola in a hot handicap chase at Doncaster on Friday.

Conceding 4lb to the progressive Before Midnight is no mean feat, and he particularly impressed me with his slick jumping, resilience and stamina in the closing stages. A 2lb rise to a mark of 154 puts him in a tricky middle ground between handicaps and Graded level that many find difficult to traverse.

However, Venetia Williams has regularly demonstrated that she isn’t afraid to run good horses in handicaps off high marks - proven by Royale Pagaille’s win in the Peter Marsh Chase last month - and the Grand Annual would look a reasonable target, where his stamina and willingness to battle would become key attributes.

GOING DOWN

Last season was the best of Michael Scudamore’s training career but he is yet to produce the same volume of winners this term, albeit many of his horses have run well in defeat. Do Your Job is a prime example. 

He switched to chasing this season after finishing a creditable runner-up in the Grade 1 Novices’ Hurdle at Aintree, and he remains highly tried with all bar one of his four chase starts coming in Graded contests.

He has acquitted himself with merit, while at the same time lacking the slick jumping of a top 2m chaser. On Saturday, he again showed that he is unable to match a horse of the calibre of Third Time Lucki. The handicapper has dropped him 2lb to a new mark of 140, which is 3lb lower than his hurdle rating. He should be competitive in handicap chases in excess of 2m4f.

Demachine clearing the last fence to win at Ascot. Alan Crowhurst

I’ve had Demachine pegged as a questionable stayer over 3m since his defeat to Remastered at Ascot last year. His two completed starts this season have only strengthened that opinion. He travelled stylishly through Doncaster’s featured race on Saturday, as he did at Newbury in November, yet he found very little at the business end of the race once again and eventually finished tenth.

Kerry Lee reported a respiratory issue to the clerk of the scales, so he will probably receive wind surgery and/or run in a tongue-tie in the future. I’d also encourage connections to explore dropping back in trip on a stiff track, where his ability to travel would be a big asset. 

A drop of 4lb to a mark of 136 certainly means he is attractively handicapped as we head into the spring.

NON-MOVERS

Regular listeners to the SBK Betting Podcast will know that Kauto Riko, left me baffled and dejected when he was beaten at Doncaster on his seasonal reappearance. I couldn’t fathom whether he didn’t stay or whether he needed further – and it’s not often that I’m short of an opinion!

I’m under no illusion that Saturday’s Cotswold Chase was a particularly poor race for a supposed Grade 2 and would agree with SBK tipster, Tom Collins, who messaged the SBK WhatsApp group to say that Chantry House “basically fell in”.

Yet, on occasions like this we must be careful not to throw the baby out with the bath water. Aye Right is a fairly solid yardstick and, while quicker ground meant he didn’t perform at his very best, his consistent form means it’s reasonable to use him as a horse to frame the race off. Kauto Riko finished six lengths behind Aye Right, in receipt of 4lb.

Time could show that the handicapper has made an error of judgement by leaving the enigmatic Kauto Riko on an unchanged mark of 139. Having looked virtually tailed off entering the home straight, he stayed on strongly in the closing stages. He has good form at Cheltenham and could well be worth chancing in a strongly run 3m handicap at the track.