Handicap Verdict: Ross Millar pinpoints this week's interesting movers

Welcome to the second edition of my weekly Handicap Verdict column. Here I will analyse a handful of revised handicap marks after their publication on January 25 and pinpoint horses worth following with future engagements in mind.

GOING UP

A thrilling finish between Shishkin and Energumene in the SBK Clarence House Chase rather overshadowed a similarly titanic battle between Sam Brown and Royale Pagaille in the Peter Marsh at Haydock.

The duel, which took place from the moment they turned for home until the finishing line, was eventually won by Royale Pagaille, who crossed the line half a length ahead of his chief rival and provided Jess Stafford with a winning nap on the SBK Betting Podcast.

The key to the race was that Royale Pagaille’s rider, Charlie Deutsch, found the perfect stride at each of the last two fences while Sam Brown was far less fluent. I’m certain that was the difference between winning and losing.

Anthony Honeyball’s Sam Brown is now a ten-year old, yet this was only his 11th career start and just the third time he’s been involved in a battle when off the bridle. He has generally either won hard-held or finished tailed off, so it was heartening to see him show real desire and tenacity as he fought all the way to the line.

The handicapper opted for a 2lb rise to a mark of 149, which doesn’t look too damaging given the first two home pulled clear of third-placed finisher Fortescue with a further ten lengths back to the 145-rated Remastered in fourth.

Given how well he stayed, a return to Haydock for the Grand National Trial over an extra three furlongs would look the next obvious target, particularly seeing as soft ground, which appears essential for this still unexposed son of Black Sam Bellamy, looks guaranteed in February.

GOING DOWN

Fontana Ellissi made the short journey across Gloucestershire from Nigel Twiston-Davies' base to Sam Drinkwater after being purchased for £40,000 at the Horses-In-Training Sale in September. His first two runs for his new trainer came at Cheltenham and Doncaster - he was far too keen in the early stages on both occasions and consequently finished tamely.

On his latest start at Newbury it was all change. Fontana Ellissi was dropped back to two miles and fitted with a hood, while Sam Twiston-Davies rode him with much more restraint by settling him at the back of the field. 

Pleasingly, the change in tactics and addition of headgear had the desired effect as he raced in a far more settled manner and finished his race off to greater effect. However, the drop in trip wasn’t ideal as he struggled to match the pace of the four in front of him as he stayed on into a promising fifth.

Sam Twiston-Davies / Alamy Ltd.

He has been dropped a further 3lb for this effort, adding to the 6lb fall after his previous two starts, and I’m confident that he is now on a winnable mark once he is moved back up to an intermediate trip, assuming the patient tactics and hood are retained.

Kerry Lee produced an impressive training performance when Shaman Du Berlais absolutely bolted up at Stratford in May 2021 on his first start for new connections after a mammoth break of 604 days.

That bloodless victory earned him a 9lb hike in the handicap, before a further 200-day break followed. He eventually returned over 2m4f at Chepstow in December and didn’t behave well, giving promising 10lb claimer Daire McConville a torrid time as he ran away with him down the backstraight. Unsurprisingly, that inefficient use of energy saw him finish a tame third.

His run at Haydock on Saturday was a step back in the right direction. His Chepstow performance had clearly taken the edge off him and he raced in a more relaxed manner. Despite being hampered by a faller at the last fence, he stayed on in eye-catching fashion over the two-mile trip. The handicapper has kindly dropped him a solitary pound, which further boosts my confidence that he is a winner in waiting when he gets a greater test of stamina.

NON-MOVERS

In all honesty I can’t quite believe that this horse is a non-mover. Dan McGrue has been lurking in my tracker since his switch of stables from Paul Nicholls to Brian Barr - a trainer who often does well rejuvenating performers who look to have lost their way.

He has steadily fallen down the weights over the last year and ran a promising race to finish a distant third at Wincanton in early January. It was a smart bit of placing to run in the Cazoo Hurdle at Lingfield on Sunday with £50,000 prize-money on offer, and he surely surpassed all expectations off level weights he battled into third place, finishing just over a length behind the 140-rated Emitom.

The ground at Lingfield was heavy and took some handling, so taking this form literally would be foolish, yet, even allowing for some variance, it would look a virtual certainty that Dan McGrue is capable of far better than his current mark of 115. He remains in my tracker and will be of interest back in a handicap over three miles on soft or heavy ground.