Handicap Verdict: Ross Millar gives his thoughts on the latest movers

Noticing when a handicap mark is harsh or lenient can be the difference between finding winners and losers. New ratings get announced every Tuesday morning for horses that have run within the last seven days, and being sharp to analyse the latest moves can prove extremely profitable. Our expert Ross Millar assesses this week's most interesting amendments.

GOING UP

Eglantine Du Seuil shaped well at Cheltenham on Thursday, on what was her first run for five months. As a Paul Nicholls horse, it is unlikely that she will find much in the way of fitness from this run as the champion trainer is well capable of getting them ready at home. But nevertheless, she should take some confidence from this run after posting disappointing efforts on her last two starts. She was raised 3lb for this promising run over hurdles but crucially her chase mark remains unaltered on 139. 

All her best form has come on a sound surface and connections utilised this to good effect when she had a productive time over fences last summer. She has proven stamina at up to 3 miles but also has winning form over 2m5f at Newton Abbot showing that she’s not short of speed either. 

Last year she entered the summer jumps season straight off the back of a busy winter campaign, while this year she’ll be fresh from her break so I would hope to see improved form and I would be disappointed if she can’t win at least two races from her current mark.

SBK ambassador, George Boughey, has started this season, as he ended last, with his ever-growing team in fine form. 

Tollard Royal is a big, strapping son of Ribchester, who himself was a Group 1 winner at a mile. He started his campaign with an impressive win at Beverley when making all over the trip of one mile and half a furlong. He was raised a not-insignificant six pounds for that win but I’m sure there is more to come. 

He has a stout pedigree through his dam, Dew Line, a solid performer at 12 furlongs with a lifetime high rating of 94. I’m sure the forceful tactics used at Beverley were largely to ensure a strong end-to-end gallop, which was able to bring his stamina into play. A step up in trip can bring about further improvement, which should help him defy his recent rise in the ratings.

GOING DOWN

It can probably be considered a bit of a flier to mention a horse beaten 35 lengths on his last start, but nevertheless here goes. 

Amoola Gold is the horse and while he was indeed beaten that distance at Cheltenham, I was still taken by some of the late progress he made, given at one point he looked like being beaten 135 lengths. I’ve long felt he is better on a right-handed track and I’m also not sure he dealt with the severely undulating nature of the Cheltenham track. The handicapper has this morning dropped him another three pounds meaning he’s now rated nine pounds lower than last December and is crucially three pounds below his last winning mark. 

It might be that he now heads off on a summer holiday, in which case watch out for him at the early Ascot meetings next autumn, though I just wonder whether his shrewd connections might aim him at a lucrative summer pot - the Summer Plate run over 2m5f at right-handed Market Rasen could be one such option.

Jonathan Portman has a reputation for finding talented performers at often bargain basement prices. Mrs Danvers, who cost just £1,000 before going on to earn just shy of £200,000 in prize money, is one such example.

I’m not for a moment suggesting Silverdale, who cost the princely sum of £1,200 will go on to reach such heights, however I am sure that off her new mark of 72 (a drop this morning of three pounds) she is capable of winning a race. 

Her run at Goodwood last summer was her standout piece of form as the now 91-rated Wilderness Girl beat her just four lengths. She didn’t perform to that level on her final start of the season, but given that it was her third run inside five weeks I’m inclined to disregard it. She looked to get tired when re-appearing last week in a novice stakes race at Bath, yet if that run brings her forward she’ll rate as highly interesting if in a handicap on her next start.