Handicap Verdict: Ross Millar believes Kingmaker third can strike at Cheltenham

Noticing when a handicap mark is harsh or lenient can be the difference between finding winners and losers on the flat and over jumps. Horses who have run in the last week have their ratings adjusted on Tuesday morning and being sharp to pick up on minor and major moves can prove extremely profitable. Our expert Ross Millar assesses this week's most interesting amendments.

GOING UP

Funambule Sivola put up a career-best performance to win the Game Spirit Chase at Newbury on Saturday, a result that I hoped wouldn’t happen for two reasons! 

Firstly, he outgunned my selection Sceau Royal - a small bit of indecision from jockey James Bowen at the first fence in the home straight had a big effect on the result. Secondly, I’m now certain that my ante-post slip on Funambule Sivola for the Grand Annual is dead in the water as connections strongly suggested after the race that he’d take his chance in the Champion Chase against the likes of Shishkin and Energumene.

However, Venetia Williams and Charlie Deutsch might have a ready-made replacement for the Cheltenham handicap in the form of Brave Seasca. He was no match for current Arkle favourite Edwardstone in the Kingmaker at Warwick, but he was only beaten six lengths and generally travelled and jumped well. Given he has already won over 2m1f at Ascot this season, you would like to think the stiff track will suit him at the festival.

The handicapper has raised him just 1lb to a mark of 146, which doesn’t seem unfair. He holds an Arkle entry, but it’s hard to see him reversing the form with Edwardstone and therefore Grand Annual looks like a better option.

GOING DOWN

I convinced myself that a 19lb difference in the weights would be enough for the Chris Honour-trained Grumpy Charley to deny warm favourite Bravemansgame at Newbury, even if softer ground would have been preferable. Sadly that didn’t pan out as Bravemansgame’s super jumping gave the selection a mountain to climb and he could only finish third. 

That was Grumpy Charley’s first try at 3m and he galloped all the way to the line, suggesting the trip was no issue. A subsequent 1lb drop in the handicap to a mark of 142 appears lenient and he should be well capable of landing a good handicap over a similar trip once the ground softens up.

Grumpy Charley jumping the final hurdle en route to victory at Chepstow in January. David Davies

Another horse desperate for wintery conditions is Lieutenant Rocco, who was heavily backed in Warwick’s feature handicap chase despite not getting his ground and running over an inadequate trip. 

There is no question that he travelled and jump well in the early stages, but, as the pace lifted down the backstraight, he came under pressure and his jumping suffered as a consequence. Quicker horses moved away from him on the home turn, at which point jockey Tom Scudamore eased off. 

A 5lb drop in the handicap appears drastic and I’d suggest his new mark of 135 hugely underestimates his ability and, once he gets his optimal conditions, I fully expect him to make a mockery of it.

If conditions were to come up testing for Cheltenham in March, then the Ultima would be the ideal race for him. His current mark would have been high enough to get in at the foot of the weights last year, while horses with his prominent run style have a great record in the race.

NON-MOVER

While I was delighted to tip the winner (Glory And Fortune) of the Betfair Hurdle, my reason for watching it back a good few times was not for self-congratulatory purposes.

I’m sure it will throw up a lot of future winners, not least Jetoile, who I mentioned in a previous edition of this column and is not one to avoid on softer ground. However, the hurdler that caught my eye was the Paul Nicholls-trained Knappers Hill, who was posted on the wing for the duration (on both bends he was at least six-wide) which certainly didn’t aid his cause. 

Despite not getting the best possible trip, he shaped like he’s ready for a step up in trip. He travelled well and jumped fluently but lacked a finishing kick, instead he stuck on at the same pace to the line. His mark (135) remains unchanged and, if he’s stepped up in trip, I’d fancy him to show himself in a better light.

NEW ENTRY

Hara Kiri is almost certainly not as talented as the horses previously discussed, but an initial mark of just 99 made him worthy of a mention.

He boasted decent bumper form in Ireland when trained by Willie Mullins, the best of which was a two-length second to the now 126-rated Crowns Major, before moving to Alex Hales ahead of a novice hurdling campaign.

Due to his reluctance to settle, his first two efforts at Plumpton and Newbury were poor, but his most recent outing at Bangor was far more promising. He was ridden extremely patiently and ran on from a long way back to finish third in a decent novice contest won by the 125-rated Jungle Jack.

Now eligible for handicaps, Hara Kiri will be competing against much weaker opposition, so, while I’m sure his future ultimately lies over trips of further than 2m, he might just have enough ability to win over the minimum trip off this mark. Relaxing in the early stages of the race will be essential.