Handicap Verdict: new mark won't stop well-treated Good Risk At All

Noticing when a handicap mark is harsh or lenient can be the difference between finding winners and losers. New ratings get announced every Tuesday morning for horses that have run within the last seven days, and being sharp to analyse the latest moves can prove extremely profitable. Our expert Ross Millar assesses this week's most interesting amendments.

GOING UP

Having highlighted Good Risk At All after his runner-up effort behind Barrichello at Warwick on January 23, I was delighted to see the Sam Thomas-trained six-year-old prove that he is miles better than a mark of 127 when he bolted up at Ascot on Saturday.

As expected, the decision to move this lightly raced hurdler up in trip suited him well and he jumped far better throughout that race than on his previous starts. Man of the moment Charlie Deutsch was undoubtedly a big factor in this.

Winning a valuable Saturday handicap without coming off the bridle is always going to merit a significant hike in the weights, and the handicapper has acted accordingly by raising Good Risk At All up 10lb to 137.

He could have been called the winner a long way out on Saturday and pulled an easy nine-lengths clear of solid yardstick Christopher Wood, who in turn pulled a distance clear of the remainder. Given his rapid improvement, I’m confident this new mark still significantly underestimates his ability.

I will follow him wherever he turns up next providing Thomas doesn’t drop him back in trip. If Deutsch keeps the ride, I will be even more confident.

GOING DOWN

In December 2019, Clemencia figured towards the head of the betting for the Triumph Hurdle after he created quite an impression with a 15-length romp at Cork for Brendan Duke. Two months later he was sold and transferred to Tim Vaughan, for whom he finished a creditable fifth in the 2020 Boodles Juvenile Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival.

He is still yet to add to his debut win and is now being campaigned over fences. Clemencia has finished third on each of his last three starts and connections logically stepped him up in trip to 3m1f for his last outing at Hereford after strong-staying performances over shorter distances.

However, heavy rain led to very deep ground which undoubtedly put too much emphasis on stamina. He still shaped well enough for much of the race and has since been dropped 1lb to a mark of 117.

His jumping has improved with every run and he is well worth another try over 3m on better ground. I believe him to be better than this current mark.

NON-MOVER

First Impression appeared unlucky to bump into Catterick specialist Mick Maestro on his latest start. He had caught my eye earlier in the season when delivering a stylish performance to win at Wetherby and looked a nice prospect for trainer John Quinn. 

Two subsequent efforts at Musselburgh followed - after unseating his rider on the first occasion, he shaped nicely in third behind Tommy’s Oscar and Christopher Wood in a decent handicap.

Neither run dented my enthusiasm and, off a mark of 125, I fancied him to return to winning ways at Catterick. Soft ground possibly didn’t help his cause and there is no denying that Mick Maestro is a good horse, especially around Catterick, so it was a pleasant surprise to see that his mark remained unchanged.