Handicap Verdict: Market Rasen winner can bounce back after recent defeat

Noticing when a handicap mark is harsh or lenient can be the difference between finding winners and losers. New ratings get announced every Tuesday morning for horses that have run within the last seven days, and being sharp to analyse the latest moves can prove extremely profitable. Our expert Ross Millar assesses this week's most interesting amendments.

GOING DOWN

The Edgar Wallace has always boasted the size and scope to develop into a classy chaser and those beliefs were confirmed when he made a winning chasing debut at Market Rasen in November, comfortably accounting for the talented Orrisdale and Torigni.

Kim Bailey’s seven-year-old missed a couple of engagements over the winter before being sent off a warm favourite at Chepstow ten days ago. His backers wouldn’t have been confident at any point as he lacked fluency and regularly came off the bridle. He eventually unseated jockey David Bass at the second-last when some way behind.

I’m confident that wasn’t his true running - it’s possible that the ground was lively enough for him over 2m3f (his previous win came over two furlongs further) - and I’m also not convinced that he handled the unique Chepstow track very well.

The handicapper has dropped him 1lb to a mark of 134 and he’s surely capable of taking advantage sooner rather than later. His pedigree is full of stamina and staying chases will be his playing ground in the near future. I’m happy to forgive one poor run and would encourage you to do the same.

GOING UP

It’s not often that a horse who has been raised 19lb in the handicap after two runs is still ahead of the handicapper. But, in Theatre Glory, I feel that is most certainly the case. The handicapper has had two big swings at her now - he raised her 11lb for an easy win at Warwick on handicap debut, before allocating an 8lb hit for an equally convincing victory at Kelso on Saturday. 

It’s important to acknowledge that Saturday’s win came under capable conditional Nathan Brennan, who was able to claim a useful 7lb, but the ease in which she won suggests that she is a rapidly improving mare who is starting to show her abundant talent.

The mares’ racing programme is undoubtedly one of the success stories for the BHA in recent years, so there isn’t a shortage of options for this pacey daughter of Fame And Glory. Especially as, like so many of Nicky Henderson’s inmates, she has shown a liking for good ground.

A lucrative summer handicap might be the main target given her new mark (137), although connections could decide to wait for an autumn campaign before the ground goes against her.

NON-MOVER

Evan Williams is more renowned for mud-loving winter types than summer horses, yet he does well with the select few he keeps in training when the weather turns warmer and State Crown caught my eye at Wincanton last week on what was his first run for 127 days. 

His fifth-placed finish also drew attention from the stewards, who enquired into his performance. Connections suggested that he was unable to hold a prominent position but, given he made all to win a 2m contest on quick ground around the sharp Newton Abbot, you would hope the inability to hold his spot was down to lack of match practice.

Whatever the case he looks well capable of winning off his current mark.