Handicap Verdict: gradual steps up in trip will see Undersupervision thrive

Noticing when a handicap mark is harsh or lenient can be the difference between finding winners and losers. New ratings get announced every Tuesday morning for horses that have run within the last seven days, and being sharp to analyse the latest moves can prove extremely profitable. Our expert Ross Millar assesses this week's most interesting amendments.

GOING UP

Sam Twiston-Davies said that he was disappointed with his sloppy riding in the last 100 yards of the Grimthorpe Chase on Saturday, which earned him a three-day ban. He impeded runner-up Mister Malarkey in the closing stages, but it made no difference to the result and shouldn’t take away from the fine ride that Twiston-Davies had given Undersupervision. 

He travelled and jumped with real aplomb throughout the contest and looked the most likely winner for much of the race. He smoothly moved up to tackle Mister Malarkey as they approached the second-last fence and the length winning margin doesn’t accurately reflect his superiority. He only does the minimum that is required.

The handicapper has raised Undersupervision 4lb to 136 and I think he’s well capable of staying ahead of that mark, especially if trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies gradually moves him up in trip.

GOING DOWN

Golden Whisky travelled much the best in Ludlow’s Fortra Gold Cup last Thursday and appeared to have all four of his rivals off the bridle turning into the home straight. However, his stamina on what appeared to be very soft ground faded away as he dropped into third in the closing stages.

Now able to race off a mark of 131, 1lb lower than at Ludlow, Golden Whisky is almost back down to his last winning rating when he stuffed his opponents over 2m4f at Chepstow over Christmas.

Soft ground appears to be important to him, although I wouldn’t be entirely dismissive if he were to try three miles again in the future on better ground. He deserves close attention wherever he goes as he is now attractively handicapped.

NON-MOVERS

Pearly Island is a big, embryonic chaser and I’m sure that fences is where his future lies, most likely over three miles or further. However,  there must be a race or two in him over hurdles off his current mark of 113, which remains unchanged after his third-placed finish at Newbury.

He jumps his hurdles in a deliberate manner and lost many lengths throughout Saturday's race over an inadequate distance. As a result, he remained out the back for much of the contest and rider Bryony Frost wasn’t overly forceful up the home straight, so it was all the more impressive that he stayed on strongly to eventually close to within seven lengths of the winner, Punctuation, with runner-up Irish Hill splitting the pair.

He was conceding 16lb to Irish Hill, who is rated 112, so his mark of 113 looks lenient, especially if he is upped in trip on his next start. The galloping nature of Newbury’s track suited him well and I’d be keen to see him stay away from tight-turning venues. 

Another of interest is Dorking Boy, who arguably travelled too well in the 2m4f handicap hurdle on the same card. Stan Sheppard would love to have his time again and ride a more patient race, I’m sure. 

The pair cruised to the front and looked the most likely winner, only to be joined and headed inside the final furlong by Bold Plan, who was given a fantastic ride by Isabel Williams. He has been left on his mark of 125 and is capable of winning a similar contest.