Handicap Verdict: Arkle faller Red Rookie remains well treated after minimal rise

Noticing when a handicap mark is harsh or lenient can be the difference between finding winners and losers. New ratings get announced every Tuesday morning for horses that have run within the last seven days, and being sharp to analyse the latest moves can prove extremely profitable. Our expert Ross Millar assesses this week's most interesting amendments.

GOING UP

I was surprised that Red Rookie took up his engagement in the Arkle last week rather than waiting for the Grand Annual, where his mark of 138 looked appealing. Connections might have thought that he wasn’t ready for a Cheltenham festival handicap at this stage of his career.

He fell at the last fence in the Arkle, but he ran with great credit and wouldn’t have been beaten all that far given how well he was finishing. The handicapper has raised him 2lb to a mark of 140, which doesn’t look beyond the scope of his ability.

The ground at Cheltenham rode no worse than good-to-soft on Tuesday and he relished it. He’s bound to find similar conditions at either Aintree or Ayr and shouldn’t be overlooked.

GOING DOWN

Heading into the Cheltenham festival most people were firmly of the opinion that the best juvenile hurdlers resided in Ireland, and their sheer dominance (first five home) in the Triumph Hurdle proved that theory to be correct.

Knight Salute was the most consistent of the British-trained runners leading into the race and performed to a high level to win his first five hurdling starts. However, he failed to shine on this occasion and finished a well-beaten ninth.

I don’t think that was an accurate reflection of his ability - he had previously finished in front of Porticello, but on this occasion found himself nine lengths behind him - so It’s possible that a busy season (eight runs since May) had finally caught up with him.

Happily all is not lost as the handicapper dropped Milton Harris’ charge down 2lb to a mark of 138, which he can surely exploit in handicaps. I wouldn’t be surprised if connections gave him a much-deserved break now before returning with a late-season flat foray. Next season, the Greatwood Handicap Hurdle at Cheltenham might suit.

NON-MOVERS

I was keen on Camprond in the Coral Cup before Wednesday’s deluge. Given all his best form has come on a sound surface and that 2m5f on soft ground stretches his stamina, he ran a mighty race to finish fourth. His mark (140) has been left unchanged and he will prove dangerous once he gets his preferred better ground later this season.

I can only imagine that Richard Patrick had a rush of blood to the head on Honest Vic in last week's Pertemps Final as he kicked for home far too soon and cost himself any realistic chance of winning. 

Honest Vic (left): Cheltenham specialist who wasn't ridden efficiently last week

A tired mistake at the last saw him fade into an ultimately well-beaten fifth, which was a step up on some below-par performances this season. He remains rated 141 and saves all his best form for Cheltenham, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see him back there in April. Under a more sensible ride he’s well capable of winning.

Shan Blue yet again disappointed at Cheltenham and confirmed my opinion that he doesn’t handle the undulations of the unique Prestbury Park track. I also don’t think that he’s a Grade 1 horse, but that matters little in relation to this column. 

His handicap mark of 148 looks more than workable and has remained untouched this season (his fall when running impressively in the Charlie Hall came too far out for the handicapper to punish him). 

I’m sure that connections will now lower their sights to a more realistic target and I’ll be keen to have him on side in handicap company.