Cheltenham Festival Predictions: Tom Collins provides his tips for every race on Tuesday

The Cheltenham Festival is finally here - the wait is officially over! Without further ado, here are my tips for Tuesday’s seven races beginning with the hotly anticipated Supreme Novices’ Hurdle.

Supreme Novices’ Hurdle (1.30 Cheltenham)

What price would Facile Vega be in the festival opener had he won at Leopardstown last month? He was 8/11 in the antepost market prior to his Dublin Racing Festival defeat, so you would have to assume he would be even shorter. This is all just conjecture, but it is still worth remembering.

Facile Vega will instead line up as a rather lukewarm jolly - for those of you who like probability, he’s gone from having a 58% chance of winning to just 29% according to the market. I think that’s a rather slapdash adjustment and I’m more than happy to back him at his current price to add to the bigger odds I grabbed in the immediate aftermath of his recent loss. Every athlete can have a bad day.

This horse has always been touted as a potential superstar and did little last year to confirm that he wasn’t living up to the hype. Maybe he didn’t beat much in the Champion Bumper here, but he still did it very impressively nonetheless. His first two starts over hurdles this season were visually impressive, and I’m willing to overlook his performance last time given he returned lame. Facile Vega is still the horse to beat.

Selection: Facile Vega @ 5/2

Arkle Novices’ Chase (2.10 Cheltenham)

Race two is a bit early for the NAP of the festival, isn’t it? Wrong. I love Jonbon in this year’s Arkle - a race that doesn’t seem to have much depth. In fact, I would go as far as saying this is a two-horse contest between the aforementioned selection and Willie Mullins’ El Fabiolo. Dysart Dynamo, who has disappointed in all three Grade 1 starts, doesn’t enter my calculations.

Jonbon: the horse to beat in the Arkle

Jonbon should be favourite. Nicky Henderson’s seven-year-old has won eight of his nine career starts - his sole defeat came when he finished second to the brilliant Constitution Hill in last year’s Supreme - and is unbeaten in three chase appearances. He’s been sent off at prohibitive odds on each occasion, but his jumping has been almost flawless and I thought he ran far better than many gave him credit for last time at Warwick.

That race became rather tactical given the two-runner field and Jonbon was briefly caught napping when Harry Skelton fired Calico into the line of fences down the backstraight. It is very difficult to win if you lose momentum on the chase track there, but Jonbon overcame adversity and eventually won comfortably. He is better suited to Cheltenham and, although El Fabiolo has a slightly higher RPR to his name (167 compared to 164), figures don’t tell the whole story.

Selection: Jonbon @ 7/4

Ultima Handicap Chase (2.50 Cheltenham)

The Ultima always goes the way of Great Britain - you have to look back to 2006 for the last Irish-trained winner, so I’m sticking with the home contingent. Assured stamina is my favourite angle in this contest and two horses leap off the page at contrasting prices.

First up is Corach Rambler, who burst between rivals inside the final furlong to take this prize 12 months ago. He has only run twice since - 2m4f on his seasonal reappearance was completely inadequate (that was to shake away the rust), and he bounced back to something like his best with a fourth-placed finish in the Hennessy in November. He’s been kept fresh for this and trainer Lucinda Russell is in flying form.

I’ll also have a few quid on Fanion D’Estruval at huge odds. Venetia Williams’ chaser can spit the dummy out early in his races, but he caught the eye with his finishing effort in the Rowland Meyrick on Boxing Day and should be ideally suited by the likely fast pace and stout test. He has run well in the Grade 1 Ryanair at this meeting for the last two years and this is far easier. 40/1 is insulting if he can stay in touch early on.

Selections: Corach Rambler @ 7/1, Fanion D’Estruval @ 40/1

Champion Hurdle (3.30 Cheltenham)

I’ll keep this one short and sweet: Constitution Hill should win Tuesday’s featured Champion Hurdle, but I won’t be having a bet at the current prices. 

Nicky Henderson’s six-year-old is a shining light in our sport and he’s yet to be truly tested - no rival has got within 12 lengths. The track and ground will suit, he jumps well, has the best turn of foot and highest cruising speed in the field, and comes out on top on figures. 

Constitution Hill (right): should win the Champion Hurdle with ease

I have the utmost respect for State Man and in any other generation he would have leading claims, but he’s taking on a beast and the prices reflect that.

Selection: Constitution Hill @ 4/11

Mares’ Hurdle (4.10 Cheltenham)

This year’s Mares’ Hurdle is anything but a supporting race - it’s a real cracker. A number of 2022 Cheltenham heroines line-up, including last year’s Champion Hurdle winner Honeysuckle and runner-up Epatante, Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle victor Love Envoi and reigning champion of this division, Marie’s Rock.

The decision to run the latter in this contest and not the Stayers’ Hurdle on Thursday seemed to divide opinion among racing folk. However, I believe that connections have made the right decision as she enters this contest with the least to prove given Honeysuckle’s regression, Brandy Love’s errant jumping, trip concerns for Echoes In Rain and class doubts about Love Envoi.

Marie’s Rock posted a clear career-best in the Relkeel Hurdle on her return to Cheltenham when last seen and has the tactical speed to get into the ideal position early on. She also has the tenacity and fight to suggest she’s the horse you want in a battle up the hill. Her main threat is Epatante - I wouldn’t be surprised if she won, but she’s better on good ground.

Selection: Marie’s Rock @ 11/4

Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle (4.50 Cheltenham)

Favourites have a pretty dismal record in the Boodles (1/10 in the last decade), while Willie Mullins is 0/14 in the same timeframe - even Gaelic Warrior couldn’t get the job done off a mark of 129 last year! Despite respecting the talents of market leader Tekao, he is priced conservatively given his connections rather than his ability and has to be opposed.

Instead, I’ll side with two other Irish entries. First up is Byker, who I believe holds the key formlines in this year’s renewal. I was at Windsor when this son of Le Havre posted a nice handicap victory on the flat for Richard Hannon last October, and he’s come on a great deal since moving to Charles Byrnes. 

I liked how he finished his race at Naas two starts back, and he just wasn’t in the best position in a tactical affair last time out. Sir Allen and Morning Soldier beat him that day, but he’s better off at the weights (10lb and 1lb respectively) with those rivals and he will benefit most from a big field and fast-run heat.

The other horse of interest is Ludus for trainer Gordon Elliott, who has won the Boodles with horses priced at 33/1 and 25/1 in the last ten years. This four-year-old gave Byker 5lb and a beating at Limerick in December, before running a good second at Punchestown. He will stay better than most and could cause a minor upset off a light weight.

Selection: Byker @ 7/1, Ludus @ 33/1

National Hunt Novices’ Chase (5.30 Cheltenham)

If Gaillard Du Mesnil wins Tuesday’s finale, I will lose money on the race. I’ve been keen to oppose Willie Mullins’ runner despite his obvious class edge for a while now and I’m certainly not changing my mind at this stage. Those who live and die by ratings will push the idea that he’s 8lb better than any horse in this field and ‘should just win’, but he finds getting his head in front pretty difficult and I wasn’t convinced that he stayed 3m5f in the Irish Grand National, so he could be vulnerable late.

Willie Mullins: trainer of National Hunt Chase favourite Gaillard Du Mesnil

Given he’s available at even-money, I would rather look elsewhere. Those of you who read my ante-post portfolio article will know that I backed three horses in this race a few months ago, but I’m just going to stick with my main pick for this section (my other two are Chemical Energy and Tenzing). 

Mister Coffey excites me most in this race. Nicky Henderson has targeted this strapping chaser at the National Hunt Chase for a year now, and he certainly hasn’t been asked for maximum efforts in his two races this campaign. Go back to last year’s festival and he was extremely unlucky to finish second in the Kim Muir after being hampered at an early stage. Leading amateur Derek O’Conner gave him a spin last time - familiarity is a bonus - and soft ground is right up his street. He should be second favourite.

Selection: Mister Coffey @ 10/1

Cheltenham Festival Tuesday Predictions

1.30 Cheltenham - Facile Vega @ 5/2
2.10 Cheltenham - Jonbon @ 7/4
2.50 Cheltenham - Corach Rambler @ 7/1, Fanion D’Estruval @ 40/1
3.30 Cheltenham - Constitution Hill @ 4/11
4.10 Cheltenham - Marie’s Rock @ 11/4
4.50 Cheltenham - Byker @ 13/2, Ludus @ 33/1
5.30 Cheltenham - Mister Coffey @ 10/1

All prices were available at the time of writing and will be used in the Cheltenham P/L, which will be posted at the bottom of my daily tipping articles this week.