Cheltenham Festival 2023 Stats: How have leading trainers and jockeys performed on day one?

The Cheltenham Festival is all about the horses. Their brilliance on the track provides the entertainment that keeps us hooked, and without their unique ability, characteristics and quirks, working out the winner of each race would become rather repetitive and mundane. 

However, given the media frenzy around this meeting for the last four or five months, I’m sure you’ve heard plenty about the individual horses set to compete for their place in the Cheltenham Hall Of Fame.

Variation is the spice of life, so I thought I’d mix it up a little by crunching some numbers from the leading trainers and jockeys who have become so familiar over the years. And, rather than providing a complete statistical analysis over the whole four days, I focussed on ‘Festival Tuesday’. Everyone wants to get off to a good start, right?

Which trainer does the best?

After looking at the ‘Specials’ markets for the 2023 Cheltenham Festival, it is obvious that the traders believe the Leading Trainer title will be fought out by Willie Mullins, Gordon Elliott, Henry de Bromhead, Nicky Henderson, Paul Nicholls and Dan Skelton. I say ‘fought out’, what I really mean is that Mullins is available at 1/8 and the others are predicted to play second fiddle!

However, the trends don’t indicate that Willie Mullins will get off to the strongest possible start. Over the last five years, the Closutton handler has sent out a total of 63 runners on ‘Festival Tuesday’ yet only seven of them have entered the winner’s enclosure (11%) - an average of just over one winner each year. Now, obviously, a number of those horses have competed against one another, but I still found that strike-rate rather startling.

If you didn’t, perhaps this will change your mind. Of Mullins’ 63 Tuesday runners since 2018, 15 of them were sent off favourite but only two returned victorious (13%). All seven of his winners came in Graded non-handicaps, so you can write off the Ultima and Boodles, while a £10 bet on each of his starters produced a significant loss of -£394.40. Ouch.

Facile Vega: Willie Mullins first favourite of the 2023 Cheltenham Festival

Mullins has a whole host of entries on the first day of this year’s festival, but his main hopes are likely to be Facile Vega (Supreme), El Fabiolo (Arkle), State Man (Champion Hurdle), Brandy Love (Mares’), Tekao (Boodles) and Gaillard Du Mesnil (National Hunt Chase). On this evidence, a number of those could be beaten. ‘Just back Mullins’ might not be a wise ploy on Tuesday.

Matching his seven Tuesday winners over the last five years is Nicky Henderson, though they came from a much smaller sample size of just 39 runners (18%). He’s also impressively won with four of his five favourites (80%) and returned a £10 level-stakes profit of +£3.61. 

Jonbon (Arkle), Constitution Hill (Champion Hurdle), Marie’s Rock and Epatante (Mares’ Hurdle) are his highest profile entries this time around. Perhaps following Henderson over Mullins is the way to go.

Henry de Bromhead and Gordon Elliott also boast £10 level-stakes profits, though that is due to big-priced winners rather than continuous success. 

In fact, Elliott has a pretty torrid Tuesday strike-rate with just three winners from 41 runners (7%), which includes a 0% return (0/6) with Festival favourites. If it wasn’t for Boodles successes with 33/1 shot Veneer Of Charm and 15/2 poke Aramax, I’d be forcing you to oppose his runners on day one.

Talking of bad records, Paul Nicholls (0/14) and Dan Skelton (1/18) aren’t known for creating Tuesday headlines at the Cheltenham Festival. There are reasons for this - most notably that the majority of their runners in this timeframe have come in the competitive Boodles. However, it still makes for grim reading for backers of Nicholls’ Supreme hope, Tahmuras.

Although these results suggest that Mullins underperforms on day one of Cheltenham, let’s not forget that he’s still won the Leading Trainer title at the last four festivals. Taking a tentative approach with his runners on Tuesday looks wise, before he predictably racks up the winners later in the week.

So, what about the leading riders?

Unsurprisingly due to his connection with Mullins, traders are already putting Paul Townend’s hands on the Leading Rider trophy at the 2023 Cheltenham Festival. Last year’s champion has an extremely strong book of rides and will prove tough to beat in the competition.

However, backing Townend blind on Festival Tuesday has proved to be a quick way to the poorhouse. The 32-year-old has only ridden two winners on the first day of the meeting over the last five years from 24 rides, which equates to an 8% strike-rate. If you backed each mount with a tenner, you would be down £182.73.

His two victories have come courtesy of Appreciate It (2020 Supreme) and Duc Des Genievres (2019 Arkle). The former, who was sent off at 8/11, is his only winning favourite on the opening day of the festival from seven mounts. Townend will be hoping that he can better those mediocre statistics this year.

Constitution Hill (right): could enhance Nico de Boinville's impressive Tuesday statistics

In contrast, Nico de Boinville has had substantial success with four winners from 17 rides (24%), and an impressive 66% strike-rate on favourites (2/3). Winners on 6/1 and 18/1 shots have supplemented strikes on odds-on jollies, and a £10 level-stakes profit of +£96.94 solidifies the claim that backing De Boinville early and often can reap rewards. Constitution Hill (Champion Hurdle) will try to enhance his record.

The recent fate of three other leading riders also caught my eye. First up is Davy Russell, who has returned to the saddle in Jack Kennedy’s absence to try and drive home winners for Gordon Elliott. However, trends suggest you shouldn’t expect many on day one as Russell is 0/13 on Tuesday mounts - way below the expected return given the average price of the horses he partners.

Rachael Blackmore’s success in and out of the saddle has been monumental in the last few years, though backers of Honeysuckle (Mares’ Hurdle) might not be pleased to read that she is 3/15 (20%) on Festival Tuesdays, producing a £10 level-stakes loss of -£109.23. However, all of those victories have come on Henry de Bromhead’s wondermare, so that might reinvigorate her fans.

The final rider to mention is Danny Mullins, who admittedly hasn’t had the ammunition to make a big statement at the Cheltenham Festival. It could be worth taking his 0/9 strike-rate with a pinch of salt, though he will have added pressure this season with a number of high profile rides set to come his way.

A number of variables contribute to historical statistics and there isn’t a strong reason why the results from the last five years should carry over to this season, especially given the battalion of horses for each trainer and jockey will have changed a great deal. However, there are little nuggets of information in there that I believe are worth storing for the first day of this year’s Cheltenham Festival. Henderson to record more winners than Mullins on day one would be my bold prediction.