Bullseye: Can we clear the murky 2023 Classics picture as winter draws in?

The approach to Christmas can be tough for the rotundity brigade. As the leaves fall from the trees, those who are ‘cuisine challenged’ are required to watch the waistband carefully.  

Mince pies, mulled wine, generous lashings of Christmas pudding and the interminable supply of Terry’s Chocolate Orange mean keeping to that ideal weight is a nigh impossible task. After all, it’s not Terry’s – it’s mine.

Luckily, when I go home for the festive period the gastro secret police are on my case. Any misplaced morsel of goodness, any half of a hobnob removed from the tin, any edible bauble stealthily pinched from the tree – the parents will be there quicker than you can see off a KitKat. And quite right, too. If I devoured everything I wanted to, my scales would break into smithereens, my trousers would cry enough for the umpteenth time, and my belt would be consigned to the pen-knife once again. 

Why does almost everything tasty contain either sugar or carbohydrates? It’s genuinely one of the great paradoxes of life. Imagine if courgettes taste of chocolate. Or if lentils were Kettle Chips. I always wonder how jockeys do it. For them, Christmas can’t be the most wonderful time of the year – it just can’t. Particularly as nearly every one of them is in action on Boxing Day, a mere 24 hours after the greatest feast of them all. It really is food for thought. 

Bizarrely, I’ve always found a great way to take my mind off my next meal is to work out the ante-post markets. There’s no way better way to quell the hunger pangs than nailing next season’s 2,000 Guineas winner. And the other day I found myself doing just that, as I wistfully thought of the fruit loaf abandoned in the fridge.  

The big question in mind is will Little Big Bear stay a mile? And if he does, will he hit the line with the same devastating potency that he has showcased over shorter trips? This is enough of a conundrum to forget about dinner all together. 

In my view, there’s almost no chance he will be as adept over a mile as he is over six furlongs. He possesses such blinding speed that it’s difficult to envisage it contained as efficiently over the Guineas trip. And there’s the fact that he’s by No Nay Never, one of the fastest stallions around. However, he does have American Graffiti and Vin Rouge as half-brothers, both of whom would stay a mile standing on their hooves. My conclusion is that he will stay, but perhaps not as effectively as some of those in opposition.

Little Big Bear (purple): will have to prove that he stays a mile next year

Next to discuss is Chaldean. The Dewhurst winner was in front a long way from home at Newmarket last week and it would be unfair to read too much into the fact that he was tiring near the line. He’s sure to be stronger next year and will no doubt get more cover than than he did at the weekend. 

He rates a formidable proposition for mile races next campaign, but it’s possible that Royal Scotsman and Nostrum will be even better. The former was closing down Chaldean at the line and looks tailor-made for the extra furlong. He began the season displaying precocious speed over sprint distances but has matured physically and could be an even more exciting prospect for next year. 

As for Nostrum, it’s almost a given the best is yet to come considering he’s trained by Sir Michael Stoute. I thought he looked a little fatigued at Newmarket and perhaps he was feeling the effects of just over a two-week turnaround from the Tattersalls Stakes. Surely, next season will be his time to shine. 

Let’s not forget Sakheer, either. He falls into the ‘could be anything’ category, a phrase that rankles me silly. What a shame it was he was forced to miss the Dewhurst as I’m of the opinion that he is more talented than any horse that lined up in that field. The way he obliterated his Mill Reef rivals was fairly breathtaking and, provided he remains sound over the winter and continues to progress physically, you can expect to see him in a Greenham or some such contest next spring. He could be the ante-post play.

And what about the fillies? It’s rather unusual that in the lead-up to winter neither Guineas has a hotpot to look forward to. Tahiyra heads the market following her near three-length romp in the Moyglare Stud Stakes - that was a display of serious star power.  

On only her second start she made the hitherto unbeaten Meditate look leg-heavy, which is an impressive achievement in itself, and she stayed the 7f strongly that day. Most would agree that she should stay an extra furlong, particularly as she’s a half-sister to the extra special Tarnawa, who excelled over middle distances. At this point, she looks the right favourite for the maestro Dermot Weld.

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Who is the biggest danger? Commissioning has impressed in three starts thus far, especially when she landed the Fillies’ Mile on the most recent occasion, but she has the appearance of a filly who might get swamped in her three-year-old season. She hasn’t blown me away and her frame now is such that she might struggle when others have caught up.

Aidan O’Brien is likely going to concentrate on Statuette, and she has a similar profile to Tuesday, who ran in the 1,000 Guineas for Ballydoyle a few years ago. She’ll need to prove that she’s adept over a mile and so far hasn’t run at the top level, but neither has my ante-post selection, Sandy Creek. 

In fact, Joseph O’Brien’s filly hasn’t even won a race yet, but she got close to beating Never Ending Story on debut at the Curragh, a filly who had the benefit of a run and went on subsequently to land a Group 3. That was a highly encouraging start and she’s sure to win next time, whether it be this season or next. The vibes are fairly strong about her being a possible Guineas candidate and her gorgeous pedigree has Classic winner written all over it. 

The end of the Flat season brings a hiatus for the Bullseye column, so I hope the winter break serves you well. Enjoy the racing, Christmas, and most importantly, the mince pies!