Britain vs Ireland: who does Ross Millar believe will take the Cheltenham Gold Cup?

There has been plenty of chatter over the last 12 months surrounding the Irish domination at the 2021 Cheltenham Festival.

The vast majority of horse racing fans seem to be expecting a similar display come March, but where do the British-trained runners stand with their Irish counterparts? In the fifth instalment of this series, Ross Millar takes a deep dive into the Gold Cup.

Ten-year rivalry: Ireland 6 v UK 4

Best of the Irish: Minella Indo

After disappointing at Down Royal and pulling up in the King George on Boxing Day, I didn’t think I would be selecting Minella Indo for this category. However, he took a huge step back in the right direction when he finished second to Conflated in the Irish Gold Cup. 

Pretty much everything went wrong at Kempton on his penultimate outing - that couldn’t have been his true running - so it was refreshing to see that new pilot Robbie Power had been instructed to give him the best possible chance to finish the race strongly at Leopardstown last month. 

That decision possibly cost him a realistic chance of winning, but might well prove crucial come March. He took a huge step forward to win the Gold Cup last year and will arguably arrive at Cheltenham this season after a better preparation.

Best of the British: Protektorat?

Protektorat is the shortest-priced British-based runner in the betting for this year’s Gold Cup after his 25-length win in the Many Clouds Chase, but I’m highly suspicious of the form. 

Runner-up Native River was retired after his next run and nothing else in the race handled the testing conditions. I was equally unimpressed with his performance on his penultimate start at Cheltenham, where he hung badly under pressure from rider Harry Skelton. 

Protektorat: winning at Cheltenham in November 2020. Alan Crowhurst

It might be a positive that he’s been targeted at this race since his Aintree win in early December, but I’m concerned that he will fail to settle after such a long lay-off as he can be keen in his races.

Eyecatching Irish outsider: Tornado Flyer

Tornado Flyer didn’t receive enough credit for his King George victory. Instead, primary focus was put on the strong fractions set by a number of the other jockeys, which I feel has been overplayed. After all, it’s not as if Danny Mullins had him ten lengths off the back of the field. 

The Willie Mullins-trained chaser showed huge reserves of stamina at the back end of that Grade 1 and another truly-run race will see him to great effect, especially given the Gold Cup is run over a longer trip. The course holds no concerns for him, either.

Eyecatching British outsider: Royale Pagaille, Santini

On initial inspection it appeared that Royale Pagaille disappointed in this race last year, but you can put a line through that effort as he finished lame. His jumping has looked more composed this season and he could out-run his current odds if the ground turns soft.

Don’t forget about Santini! He is now in the care of Polly Gundry, who has been tasked with sweetening him up. On the evidence of his last run, it looks like she’s well on the road to delivering.

Santini travelled and jumped better than ever when second in the Cotswold Chase and, although he will need to post another improved effort, I got the distinct impression that connections felt that he would improve considerably for the run. If there’s some cut in the ground on Gold Cup day then he could run into a place at huge odds.

Verdict: UK or Ireland?

There is so much quality in the Irish battalion - Minella Indo, A Plus Tard, Galvin, Conflated, Al Boum Photo and Tornado Flyer - that it is entirely feasible that they will fill the first six places. Significant downpours may be required for a home challenger to contend.