Britain vs Ireland: Ross Millar identifies leading players in the novice hurdles

There has been plenty of chatter over the last 12 months surrounding the Irish domination at the 2021 Cheltenham Festival.

The vast majority of horse racing fans seem to be expecting a similar display come March, but where do the British-trained runners stand with their Irish counterparts? In the sixth instalment of this series, Ross Millar takes a deep dive into the four novice hurdles.

SUPREME

Ten-year rivalry: Ireland 6 v UK 4

Best of the Irish: Dysart Dynamo

The Irish chance looks to rest firmly with Willie Mullins. Both Sir Gerhard and Dysart Dynamo appear to have outstanding credentials, but they are likely to be separated with one of them sure to line up in the Ballymore. Dysart Dynamo has looked the real deal so far over hurdles and has a potent combination of a high cruising speed and necessary stamina. If he lines up here then he will be hard to beat.

Best of the British: Constitution Hill

Nicky Henderson’s contenders - Jonbon and Constitution Hill - appear to be the only realistic British challengers in the Supreme. I was possibly more impressed than some with Jonbon’s latest effort at Haydock as he clearly didn’t appreciate the deep ground and displayed essential battling qualities. Constitution Hill has looked superb on both starts at Sandown and is clearly held in the highest regard by connections. I have reservations whether he will be able to reproduce his form on better ground around Cheltenham (his dam was best on soft ground), but if he can overcome that potential issue then he has strong claims.

Eyecatching Irish outsider: El Fabiolo

I was impressed by El Fabiolo as he waltzed to victory at Tramore on New Year’s Day. He easily brushed aside Tempo Chapter Two, who has since franked the form at Fairyhouse. El Fabiolo arrives at Cheltenham with a distinct lack of experience but is clearly a smart type and can outrun his odds.

Eyecatching British outsider: none

There isn’t a British-trained runner at a big price with a plausible chance of winning.

Verdict: UK or Ireland?

This is a hard one to call. Dysart Dynamo has caught my attention with his unrelenting style, but Nicky Henderson’s pair have better form. It’s an evenly-balanced contest but it might head back to Ireland.

Sir Gerhard: winner of last year's Champion Bumper. David Davies/Jockey Club

BALLYMORE

Ten-year rivalry: Ireland 7 v UK 3

Best of the Irish: Sir Gerhard

Dysart Dynamo would have been interesting in this race given he won a bumper over 2m2f, but Sir Gerhard might be the chosen player from the Willie Mullins yard. He should find jumping easier at a slightly slower pace and, as a former Champion Bumper winner, stamina shouldn’t be an issue.

Best of the British: Stage Star

British challengers are thin on the ground, but that shouldn’t deride from the ability of Stage Star. He has been a comfortable winner on all three hurdling starts, although his overall form leaves him with a bit to find (on a line through Gringo D’aubrelle he is ten lengths worse than Dysart Dynamo). That improvement is impossible as Stage Star is yet to be fully extended, but he has it all to do.

Eyecatching Irish outsider: Minella Cocooner

Minella Cocooner is another with multiple options (he could step up in trip to the Albert Bartlett), but this race might suit him best given that he can be quite free in his races. It was astonishing that he was able to keep galloping after he set strong fractions at Leopardstown over 2m6f. Danny Mullins was on board for that victory and, if he were to maintain the partnership, he might try to employ similar tactics.

Eyecatching British outsider: Lac De Constance

Wonderwall, who isn’t fluent over hurdles, and I Am Maximus seem to be below this level. At a huge price, I will give a mention to the Dan Skelton-trained Lac De Constance, who has plenty to find on ratings but looks sure to improve over this longer trip and could show significant improvement.

Verdict: UK or Ireland?

I’d be staggered if an Irish-trained runner doesn’t win this. They look to have quality and quantity, and Willie Mullins could saddle the first two home.

Hillcrest: already a winner at Cheltenham this season. David Davies

ALBERT BARTLETT

Ten-year rivalry: Ireland 6 v UK 4

Best of the Irish: Ginto

It is difficult to know exactly which horses will turn up here. I would oppose him if he runs in the Ballymore, but Ginto has strong claims in this heat. He looks a thorough stayer and has vital experience that many believe you need to win this contest. While Grand Jury didn’t frank the Naas form, Hollow Games most certainly did as he was beaten just three lengths by Minella Cocooner at Leopardstown next time up. Ginto looked strong inside the final furlong last time out and a step up in trip will benefit him. His tendency to jump to his right is a minor concern.

Best of the British: Hillcrest

The giant Hillcrest put in a remarkable performance when upped to 3m at Haydock last time. I was convinced his jockey, Richard Patrick, had got his fractions all wrong as he set a strong pace on desperate ground, yet Hillcrest showed huge ability to maintain that gallop for the duration and win by a comfortable margin. If he runs, I rate him the likeliest winner.

Eyecatching Irish outsider: Eric Bloodaxe

He was beaten by Ginto when they met at Navan over 2m4f, but Eric Bloodaxe is a much better horse over 3m. He improved significantly on his best form when he won at Limerick over Christmas, but will have to bounce back from a poor showing at the Dublin Racing Festival. I’m always happy to forgive one below-par effort, though, and he is an interesting contender.

Eyecatching British outsider: Stag Horn

There aren’t many 100-rated flat horses who are sent hurdling. Stag Horn had a peak mark of 108 on the level and looks to have transferred that ability to this new discipline seamlessly. Given that he stayed 2m2f on the flat, it’s fair to think that his two wins at Hereford (2m3f) and Warwick (2m5f) have come despite the trip rather than because of it. He is as good a jumper of a hurdle that you will see and he’s gone under the radar.

Verdict: UK or Ireland?

This is yet another wide-open novice hurdle, although Hillcrest is the likeliest winner if he runs. Stag Horn is a classy alternative and this could end up going the way of the home team.

Vauban: got off the mark at the Dublin Racing Festival last month. Donall Farmer

TRIUMPH

Ten-year rivalry: Ireland 6 v UK 4

Best of the Irish: Vauban

Take your pick! Pied Piper and Vauban have strong form and, although the former came out on top at Punchestown, many felt that Vauban was the better horse. His jumping improved next time when comfortably beating the highly-regarded Fil D’Or in the Spring Juvenile Hurdle at the Dublin Racing Festival and Willie Mullins suggested that he would improve plenty for the experience, which makes him a truly frightening proposition.

Best of the British: Knight Salute, Porticello

This is another race where the British challengers are in short supply. The tough Knight Salute has enjoyed a fine season and is unbeaten after five starts, but he might just come up short in this. Porticello is an interesting runner and his last effort at Haydock showed that his jumping has improved. He has ability but his chance is inextricably linked to soft or heavy ground.

Eyecatching Irish outsider: Il Etait Temps

The form of the Spring Juvenile Hurdle will prove to be a strong indicator. Il Etait Temps was given an educational ride that day as Danny Mullins was keen to settle him at the rear of the field. That undoubtedly compromised his chance as the winner and runner-up were ridden prominently. However, he made good progress late in the race to finish an honourable third and it is reasonable to anticipate significant improvement. He shouldn’t be considered a back number.

Eyecatching British outsider: Teddy Blue

As a maiden he doesn’t possess the typical profile of a Triumph winner, yet there can be no mistaking Teddy Blue’s raw ability. He finished in front of Vauban in a Longchamp maiden over 1m2f then travelled like the best horse at Kempton, only to lose all chance when demolishing the final hurdle. It should also be noted that he was in receipt of 5lb from Knight Salute.

Verdict: UK or Ireland?

This surely goes to Ireland with both Gordon Elliott and Willie Mullins holding strong hands. Heavy ground would level the playing field somewhat.