Aintree Tips: Tom Collins provides a race-by-race guide for day one

The Flat season is now within touching distance, but we have the not-so-small matter of the Grand National meeting to get through first! Three days of excellent jumps racing.

SBK tipster Tom Collins provides race-by-race analysis and his selection in each of Thursday's seven contests at Aintree.

1.45 Aintree, 2m4f Manifesto Novices’ Chase

There have been twelve runnings of this 2m4f novices’ chase. Eleven of them have been won by a horse in the top three in the betting; ten have gone to novice chasers who competed at the Cheltenham festival, and Paul Nicholls has a staggering 0-13 record in the race. They are the key trends worth attention in the Aintree opener on Thursday.

Likely market leader Pic D’Orhy fails to hit two of those trends and has to be opposed at relatively short odds. That’s not to say that he can’t win, of course, but there are far better bets in the race given he boasts a profile in stark contrast to the average winner of the Manifesto.

I much prefer the chances of War Lord. Colin Tizzard’s horses usually come to life at this meeting and War Lord, who has improved with every start this year and produced a new career-best when fourth at huge odds in the Arkle last month, should be well suited to this assignment. This step up in trip can be the catalyst for further improvement. 

Selection: War Lord @ 3.65

2.20 Aintree, 2m1f Jewson 4-Y-O Juvenile Hurdle

This four-year-old event provides the first proper opportunity for a form comparison between two Cheltenham festival contests - the Triumph Hurdle and Boodles Handicap Hurdle.

Pied Piper, who finished third behind the brilliant Vauban in the Triumph, will take on Boodles winner Brazil in what appears to be a match between the two Irish-trained prospects. There are a couple of interesting runners at bigger prices - Petit Tonnerre and Fautinette especially - but neither have run to the same level of form as the market protagonists.

Pied Piper is the pick despite being short enough in the market. The Triumph looked hotter at Cheltenham and he was perhaps ridden a touch conservatively given how the race developed. The long straight and extra furlong should suit, too.

Selection: Pied Piper @ 2

2.55 Aintree, 3m1f Betway Bowl Chase

Unlike the Manifesto Novices’ Chase, which kickstarts the Grand National meeting, Paul Nicholls has a great record in this contest with five winners in the race’s history. His most recent victor was 2021 scorer Clan Des Obeaux, who is chosen to repeat the feat 12 months on under Harry Cobden.

The veteran absolutely hacked up by 26 lengths in a sub-par renewal last year and has clearly been aimed at this race ever since. He ran creditably after a break when runner-up to Tornado Flyer in the King George, before crucially missing the fourth-last fence in the Denman Chase in February. It was a momentum-stopping mistake and he ran far better than the bare result suggests.

First-time blinkers have been enlisted by Nicholls, which should help him take a necessary step forward on his previous efforts this year, and he goes to Aintree fresh rather than having a hard race in the Gold Cup last month. It’s a tricky heat but Clan Des Obeaux gets the nod.

Selection: Clan Des Obeaux @ 6.2

3.30 Aintree, 2m4f Aintree Hurdle

Epatante is the horse to beat in the Aintree Hurdle - there is no doubt about that. Nicky Henderson’s star mare returned to something like her best when second in the Champion Hurdle last month, and she may have even challenged eventual winner Honeysuckle up the hill had she not made a mess of the last.

However, she takes a big step up in trip (four furlongs) here and I’m wary that her relatively short price fails to reflect her jump into the unknown. Zanahiyr, who all-but shares favouritism, has similar questions to answer.

Monmiral: sharp juvenile hurdler who could step forward at Aintree. David Davies

Five-year-olds have a terrible record in this race (2-32), but I’m going to take a chance on the Paul Nicholls-trained Monmiral at a double-figure price. Harry Cobden said Monmiral is “the best juvenile hurdler I’ve ever sat on” when he put the classy Adagio in his place at this meeting last year and it might be worth excusing him two below-par runs this season.

If he bounces back to what we saw last year, Monmiral could be the joker in the pack. 

Selection: Monmiral @ 11

4.05 Aintree, 2m5f Foxhunters’ Open Hunters’ Chase

The Grand National course will be put to use for the first time this spring in the Foxhunters’, a race that divides opinion but always produces an exciting finish for onlookers. It’s not easy to compare pointing form, but a couple of classy recruits head the market and may fight this race out between them.

Jett is the right favourite and my selection. With four fences to jump in last year’s Grand National, the Sam Waley-Cohen-ridden chaser traded as short as 3/1 in running after a number of sublime leaps helped to extend his advantage over the rest of the field.

He paid for his exertions in the final half a mile, but still finished eighth in the showpiece contest and has aimed at this easier assignment since. The drop back to 2m5f is sure to suit and very few horses jump these fences better. One thing you know with Jett - you’ll get a good run for your money.

Selection: Jett @ 4.4

4.40 Aintree, 2m Red Rum Handicap Chase

If you’re looking for a wide-open betting heat, similar to those on offer in the handicaps at the Cheltenham festival, the Red Rum is for you!

A total of 18 runners are set to go to post and you could feasibly make a case for 90 per cent of the field. Sky Pirate and Bold Enough were the last two off my shortlist, but preference is for the Dan Skelton-trained King D’Argent. 

This talented seven-year-old will relish the flat track at Aintree and likely fast pace, which should allow him to use his high cruising speed to move into contention before the homestraight. He’s much better than a 139 horse on his day (peak RPR of 150) and the ground should be perfect.

Selection: King D’Argent @ 9.8

5.15 Aintree, 2m1f Mares’ National Hunt Flat Race

Five-year-olds have a good recent record in this bumper (six of the last nine winners), but I’m going to take a shot at the year-older Leading Theatre, who caught my eye when second to stable companion Bonttay in a Cheltenham bumper in November.

A dual Worcester winner before her trip to the Cotswolds, Leading Theatre met trouble coming down the hill and had to force her way into the clear while Bonttay scooted around the outside. Only a length-and-a-half split the pair at the line and she appeared a reasonably unlucky loser.

Fergal O’Brien has kept her fresh as she needs good ground and she could be overlooked at tasty odds.

Selection: Leading Theatre @ 21

Recommended bets:

War Lord (1.45 Aintree) @ 3.65
Pied Piper (2.20 Aintree) @ 2
Clan Des Obeaux (2.55 Aintree) @ 6.2
Monmiral (3.30 Aintree) @ 11
Jett (4.05 Aintree) @ 4.4
King D’Argent (4.40 Aintree) @ 9.8
Leading Theatre (5.15 Aintree) @ 21