Why form matters: what to expect in the next two majors

Cream rises to the top

We’ve had two very different majors so far with two very different leaderboards, but ultimately two quality winners that prove the cream will usually rise to the top. 

Scottie Scheffler dominated from start to finish at the Masters, before Justin Thomas came from nowhere to eventually win the US PGA Championship after a playoff. 

So after half the year’s majors have been played, what lessons have we learned that could help us decipher what’s going to happen at the upcoming US Open at Brookline and Open Championship at St Andrews? 

What is clear is that form matters almost above everything else, with big guns like Jon Rahm, Dustin Johnson and Brooks Koepka not getting as involved as they all have been in recent years.  

It’s not quite a changing of the guard, more a widening of the talent pool of players who look capable of winning one of golf’s biggest prizes, so although you’re likely to know the names of the next two major champions they may not be top of your list. 

What next for Tiger Woods? 

It was as tough to watch at Southern Hills as it was glorious to watch at Augusta, as Tiger Woods hobbled his way around three rounds of the US PGA before having to withdraw. 

Woods battled the pain at Augusta, but it became too much in Oklahoma and the mere fact that a competitor like Tiger had to concede defeat shows just how tough it is for him in what is still relatively early days in his recovery from such a horrific injury. 

Teeing it up again just over five weeks after the draining physical and emotional effort it took to play The Masters obviously didn’t give Woods enough time to fully recover and indeed progress in terms of his fitness. 

With less than a month until the US Open, the chances of Woods teeing it up at Brookline are slim going on how he was moving at Southern Hills. 

Not least because a setback would harm his chances of playing in the Open at St Andrews, his favourite course in the world. He’s committed to playing in the JP McManus Pro-Am as a warm-up event and he’ll be giving it everything to play at the home of golf. 

You wouldn’t bet against him making the cut at the Open either given his knowledge of playing links golf. 

Rory McIlroy has consistently struggled to put four rounds together at a major but remains favourite for the US Open and Open Championship

Should inconsistent McIlroy be favourite for both majors? 

Rory McIlroy just can’t put four rounds together in a major, which continues to be a frustration to the four-time major winner who we all thought would have been in double figures by now after his last success in 2014. 

McIlroy had a flying finish to the Masters followed by a flying start at the PGA Championship, but has not been able to produce in all four rounds of the same major. 

He again threatened in the final round of the PGA with four straight birdies early on, but he couldn’t keep up the momentum and finishing just three shots back he was fuming afterwards – refusing to speak to the media in the aftermath. 

McIlroy is actually the 15 favourite for the US Open and 14 favourite to win the Open as one of three players to have top 10 finishes in the first two this year, but those questions about him will only continue to grow. 

It’s not the fact McIlroy hasn’t won a fifth major, although with his talent he really should have another couple at least, but the fact he’s not really been a serious contender on a Sunday. 

He clearly feels the frustration we all share, and he has to try and figure out how to get himself at least into the picture, because he’s just too talented not to win another major.    

Could Thomas or Scheffler double up? 

Scottie Scheffler looked unbeatable at the Masters but frustrated at the PGA as he missed the cut – it's a rare setback for someone with four wins this year that took him to number one in the world. 

He’s still a 16 shot and vying for favouritism for the US Open, but with just 42 days between his first ever PGA Tour win and becoming world number one, the whirlwind may just now be settling down. 

Justin Thomas has been in the spotlight a bit longer, and his second major was coming as he also finished T8 at the Masters. His win at Southern Hills was his eighth top 10 in 13 outings and that form eventually paid off.  

Thomas is handily enough priced up at 17 for both the US Open and Open and has a game that could work for both events, with his shot-making especially suited to links golf despite him not having a great Open record. 

It’s the consistent form though that looks to be an indicator of major contenders, and we certainly have to put young Will Zalatoris into that category – as he’s really got a taste for the big tournaments. 

Zalatoris hasn’t won on the PGA Tour yet, but like Scheffler the floodgates could open once he gets one under his belt, and it wouldn’t be surprising if his first win was a major. 

He’s relatively friendless in the market at 30 for the US Open and 50 for the Open, considering he’s finished second twice, once via a playoff, and has also finished T6, T6 and T8 in just seven majors, one of which he withdrew from. 

His putting will be a major reason for that, but beyond the aesthetics, which admittedly do make you nervous, his actual stats are good and he’s definitely overpriced in the next two. 

Justin Thomas's excellent form this year was a huge factor in his success at the US PGA in Southern Hills

Who to back at the US Open 

The Country Club at Brookline will present another monster test for players, as it’ll again have punishing rough and devilishly testing fast greens. 

Matt Fitzpatrick won the US Amateur here and priced at 40 he should give you a good run for your money after a fine effort at the PGA. 

Collin Morikawa can win his third different major here if the 30 chance uses his sparkling iron play to knock it close on these greens – and he did finish T4 in last year’s US Open. 

That was part of an incredible run of finishing T8, T4, 1, 5 in four straight majors, including winning the Open, before a T55 at the PGA – it's no stretch to see him hitting right back by going close. 

It’s usually one for the bombers though so defending champion Jon Rahm could launch a decent defence if he finds some form beforehand, and maybe this test will bring Koepka, Johnson and even Bryson DeChambeau back into major consideration.  

Who to back at the Open

It doesn’t come more special than the 150th Open Championship at St Andrews, and first and foremost I’ll be backing Tiger Woods to make the cut if he manages to make the line-up. 

Jordan Spieth would be one to keep an eye on here at 17 as he could have won last time at St Andrews and his imaginative short game will always give him a chance on the links. 

Robert MacIntyre will have a huge following as the big home hope and a big early price of 70 will end up a lot shorter as Scottish punters no doubt back him in the lead-up. 

And they’ll be wise to do so as it’s not just a patriotic bet, with the left-hander having a solid major record and finishing T6 and T8 in his two Opens so far. 

And building on our theme of knocking on the door, Tommy Fleetwood (42) had his fourth top five in majors at the PGA while Shane Lowry (28) finished T3 at the Masters and of course has a Claret Jug tucked away at home. 

New stars are popping up all the time and challenging for majors, but as the PGA Championship illustrated perfectly, having been there before recently can just help to be the difference in getting you over the line.