Waste Management Phoenix Open Predictions: Driving stats point the way of Young

Bryan Nicholson

7 February 2023

Let's check into the desert and get ready for what is renowned as the greatest show on grass. The pristine stadium-style TPC Scottsdale will once again play host to a boisterous affair at the Waste Management Phoenix Open - one of the best events each year in terms of atmosphere and gameplay.

The first full-field PGA tournament of the season is loaded with eight of the top ten players in the world. Spaniard Jon Rahm tops the market, but is swiftly followed by Rory McIlroy and Scottie Scheffler. With a book that looks mini-major-esque, golf tipster Bryan Nicholson has his say.

The course

Immaculately conditioned and always eventful, TPC Scottsdale is desert golf incorporating a sculpted snooker table-like playing area. The brief for the players is: Total Driving and little room for manoeuvre, but it's a risk-reward theme with desert scrub and water awaiting the errant.

Raised and firm greens have bunkers protecting false fronts, while the altitude and warm climate of Phoenix means distance control from approach shots is vital. Tucked flags are the poison and launching it high from the fairway is the remedy. Make your scores on the volatile back nine.

Rory McIlroy: returns to action this week and is considered one of the most likely winners

So, who is best equipped to take on the Waste Management Phoenix Open challenge? With the big boys at the top of the market, it inflates the prices available on guys further down the field and that’s who I’ll be looking at. I will be using specifically designed models this year to eke out some value, while churning out some form and course-fit ratings in the process.

The Contenders

Cameron Young, who is available at 30, is jumping off the page. We are looking for a driving machine here and Young ranked second in strokes gained off the tee and 19th in Total Driving in his maiden PGA Tour season.

The American enters the tournament off the back of a runners-up finish in Saudi Arabia, where he hit three rounds of 65. He also shot three rounds in the 60s at TPC Scottsdale on his debut last year and eventually finished tied-26th, and owns a course-fit rating of 9.15 for this venue.

Carlos Ortiz was the talk of the tournament last year after tallying a hole in one on the par-three 16th before claiming an eagle on 17 – the odds of that happening was around 90,000/1.

Ortiz’s one-shot wonder added to a rare week of multiple aces on the famous par three. In history, there have been just 11 holes in one recorded in 35 years on the 16th at the Waste Management Phoenix Open at TPC Scottsdale. Gaining shots on the field there is crucial, so keep an eye on proceedings!

The Outsiders

Prior experience of playing in this event and witnessing the electric atmosphere can be a strong driver towards success at the Waste Management Phoenix Open. That points the way of Sahith Theegala (55), who was the ‘nearly man’ here in 2022 when he missed out by a solitary stroke.

Theegala led after 54 holes but shot a Sunday 70 and threw away his chance of lifting the trophy. He’s now back for another bite of the cherry off the back of a tied-fourth finish at Torrey Pines. The relative newcomer led the tour in birdies last season and securing blue numbers is the brief at Scottsdale.

Given Total Driving is crucial, Keegan Bradley (90) stands out like a sore thumb. The 36-year-old was second in total driving efficiency last season, and could be rejuvenated this year after dropping 30lbs during the off-season.

Ranked 22nd in the world, Bradley owns a progressive form rating of 8.93 after winning at Zozo - another track where top driving is required - and finishing second in his last competitive tournament at the Farmers Insurance Open.