Valspar Championship: Thomas the man to beat in Tampa as NeSmith takes two-shot lead

NeSmith sets the pace in Tampa

Matthew NeSmith might have matched Padraig Harrington's nine-year-old course record to take a two-stroke lead into the weekend, but world No.8 Justin Thomas remains the man to beat in the Valspar Championship in Tampa.

Thomas carded a second successive 66 to get to 10-under par at Innisbrook Resort's Copperhead Course, and he's lurking in fifth place, just four shots behind NeSmith, who birdied six of his last nine holes en route to a 10-under 61.

NeSmith is the only player bogey-free through 36 holes, two strokes clear of 2017 Valspar Championship winner Adam Hadwin on 14-under par, with Scott Stallings and defending champion Sam Burns tied third, a further shot behind.

The leader has recorded just three top 10 finishes in 71 PGA Tour starts and is just the fourth favourite at 6.6 behind Thomas to claim his maiden title.

It's the seventh time Thomas has opened with two rounds of 66 or better on the PGA Tour, and after going on to win on three of the six previous occasions, he'll be tough to beat over the weekend as the wind dries out the course and puts more of a premium on iron play.

"I feel like I'm really close to playing some good golf and getting on a run and winning some tournaments,” said Thomas, the favourite at 5.2.

Justin Thomas is four shots off the lead

Watch out for Webb

Hadwin is third-favourite at 6.4, and it's easy to see why, given he was tied ninth in last week's Players Championship.

However, we prefer defending champion Burns, who is 6.2 to join Paul Casey (2019) as the only players to successfully defend a title at the Valspar Championship.

Better value is available with Webb Simpson, who is 32 to win after getting to within six shots of the lead on eight-under after a pair of 67s in just his second start after taking seven weeks off with back trouble.

With the course set to dry out as the weekend goes on, former world No.1 Dustin Johnson (90) has the game to make a move from the pack early in the day.

Lowry lurking

Shane Lowry (130), one of our pre-tournament picks, remains on the fringe of contention on five-under-par, but he's full of confidence and hoping for some wind over the last two rounds.

"The course is just playing a bit soft, and I've only played here once before, and it's not the Tampa I have watched on TV," said Lowry, who has had six top-24 finishes in a row, including two top-10s.

"It's playing quite soft, and it's quite tough to shortside yourself, whereas in previous years, it's been very tricky around here. So, I am hoping the wind gets up a bit this afternoon and dries out the course a little bit, and hopefully, we get a bit more wind at the weekend."

Johnson is even further back, tied 38th on four-under in his 300th start on the PGA Tour.

However, he's got the game to go low early in the day and put himself in position, and at 90, he may yet spring a surprise with a weekend charge as he seeks his first win since the Saudi International 13 months ago.

Recommended bets

Justin Thomas @ 5.2 

Webb Simpson @ 32