Valspar Championship: Justin Thomas heads the field for Copperhead test

Hovland on fire

Norway’s Viktor Hovland continues to build up a head of steam with just a month to go before the Masters, and he’s understandably one of the favourites for the Valspar Championship at Innisbrook Resort’s Copperhead course.

The 24-year old world number three has six wins in just 69 professional starts and after contending for the Genesis Invitational, the Arnold Palmer Invitational and The Players in his last three outings, he’s 13.5 to win his fourth PGA TOUR title this week.

There might be questions marks over Hovland’s chipping, but he is arguably the hottest player on the planet with three victories in his last nine starts worldwide. He faces stiff opposition in Florida with 11.5 favourite Justin Thomas, 13th at Copperhead last year, also showing form.

No fewer than 14 of the world’s top 30 are in the field and while there are arguments to be made for Collin Morikawa, Xander Schauffele, Dustin Johnson, Louis Oosthuizen and Tyrrell Hatton, defending champion Sam Burns showed by contending at TPC Sawgrass he’s worth a flutter at 27.

Tough conditions

The delayed finish in The Players has led to a string of withdrawals with former winner Paul Casey, third at Sawgrass, one of 11 changes in the original entry list over the past three days.

While a long week at Sawgrass may become a factor for some at Copperhead, which was the 20th hardest course on the PGA Tour last year, players who excel in demanding conditions do well, especially with The Snake Pit holes from the 16th to the 18th capable of wrecking any scorecard.

The forecast is for showers and isolated thunderstorms on Friday afternoon, and while wind speeds are not expected to exceed 15 mph, the course can become a brute. Few players relish challenging, breezy courses as much as Ireland’s Shane Lowry, who is clearly a player in form and a very tempting 42 shot.

He hasn’t won since he captured The Open Championship at Royal Portrush in 2019, but with five top 15s and a tie for 24th in his last six starts worldwide, including a runner-up finish in the Honda Classic and tie for 13th at Sawgrass, he’s trending.

Brooks Koepka is rated as a 48 chance for the Valspar Championship in Florida this weekend

Par breakers

Lowry's ranked 22nd for greens hit in regulation on the PGA TOUR this year and 36th for strokes gained from tee to green, which are two key requirements for success at Copperhead. More importantly, he is seventh for proximity to the hole from the fairway, which is another critical factor at Copperhead, as Burns showed last year when finishing tenth in that category.

The course does not give up birdies or eagles easily, so the ability to grind out pars is essential, and in that regard, it’s no surprise to see Hovland, Thomas and Morikawa in the top four when it comes to holing par-breakers.

Better value is on offer for Keegan Bradley, who led or co-led after each of the first three rounds last year before finishing solo second. The 2011 US PGA champion is now 55 after coming from the tougher side of the draw to finish solo fifth at The Players on Sunday.

Recommended bets

Lowry @ 42

Bradley @ 55