US PGA Championship: why grinder Fitzpatrick can end long wait for English win

Pereira in shock lead

Moving day meant moving backwards for many of the leading lights as unheralded Chilean Mito Pereira claimed a three-shot lead heading into the final round of the 108th PGA Championship at a cool and blustery Southern Hills.

As the 27-year old from Santiago continued his quest for a maiden PGA Tour win with a one-under 69 and the solo lead on nine-under, overnight leader Will Zalatoris fell back to tied second on six-under alongside England’s Matt Fitzpatrick, who finished birdie-birdie for a 67.

Saturday was meant to be the day major winners Justin Thomas, Rory McIlroy, Stewart Cink or Bubba Watson would stamp their authority on the championship. But they all disappointed.

Thomas in contention

Thomas (36) remains in the mix, tied for seventh on two-under after a 74, but seven shots back alongside Watson and Cink who shot 73 and 71 respectively.

As for McIlroy (120), he was second last for putting as he crashed to a 74 to fall nine shots off the pace to tied 17th on level par, and too far back to win now bar a miracle round. So who will win?

History says Zalatoris (5.7) as all seven majors played at Southern Hills have been won by the 36-hole leader. He’ll be hoping he’s put his bad round out of the way but his suspect putting cost him yesterday — he was in 58th of 79 for strokes gained on the greens— and that could prove his Achilles’ heel under major pressure.

Justin Thomas remains in contention at Southern Hills, but he's seven shots behind surprise leader Mito Pereira

Fitzpatrick can break US duck

Pereira is the favourite at 2.56 and while he has heart, we fancy Fitzpatrick to break his US duck. The Sheffield native has no real weaknesses and after becoming the first English winner of the US Amateur for 102 years in 2013, he has the kind of grinding, major championship game required to become the first Englishman to lift the Wanamaker Trophy since Jim Barnes won his second PGA title 103 years ago.

At 5.2, he’s decent value and no stranger to winning big events as his two wins in the season-ending DP World Tour Championship in Dubai attest. 

Korn Ferry Tour graduate Cameron Young (9.8) appears too inexperienced to win, even at just four shots back. Mexico’s Abraham Ancer is five back on four-under and, at 21, he’s excellent value and worth a punt alongside his playing partner Séamus Power who is six back and rated 46.

At 35, Power has maturity and a good head and if there’s to be a springer from the pack, he has the game and the course management to go very low. 

Having holed little all week, he had a better day on smoother greens yesterday and may well get the fast start he needs to exert pressure on the final two groups as he partners Ancer on the final day.

Recommended bets

Matt Fitzpatrick @ 5.2

Abraham Ancer @ 21

Justin Thomas @ 36

Séamus Power @ 46