US PGA Championship: Thomas and McIlroy the big dangers as Zalatoris leads

The halfway stats

The 36-hole leader or co-leader has lifted a major 37.3 per cent of time since the US PGA Championship changed from matchplay to strokeplay in 1958. But all bets are off when it comes to major events at Southern Hills.

The halfway leader has won all seven men's Majors held at the Tulsa venue — three US Opens and four PGAs — not to mention the other three professional events played there.

Ten halfway leaders winning from ten events is an excellent statistic for Will Zalatoris, who has a 28% chance of becoming the eighth first time winner in the last 13 majors after he carded a five-under 65 to lead by a shot from Chile's Mito Pereira, who shot 63, on nine-under.

Zalatoris might be only 25 and still winless on the PGA Tour. But there's a reason he's the favourite at 3.55 to win tomorrow. While he only turned professional in 2018, he's recorded four top-10s in six major starts, including a runner-up finish to Hideki Matsuyama in last year's Masters.

Tough course for chasing

Like Pereira (rated at 8), he is an outstanding ball striker and that could make him hard to catch at a tough course that is not conducive to chasing. "It's an easier golf course to play patient golf on," said three-time major winner Pádraig Harrington, who missed the four-over cut by eight shots.

"If you're hitting it to 15-20 feet on every green and are rolling putts for birdie, you're going to hole a few. "But if you're going after those pins, you're going to miss a few and if you miss and find those bunkers, you're struggling to get up and down.”

Still, majors are majors and with the temperature set to plummet over the weekend and the wind forecast to switch direction, the 79 players who made the cut on four-over—including Tiger Woods, who is three-over after a gutsy 69—face a very different Southern Hills today.

First-round leader Rory McIlroy is at 11.5 on Smarkets after he struggled early but carded a 71 to share fifth with Mexico's Abraham Ancer and 25-year old Korn Ferry Tour graduate Davis Riley.

McIlroy is five shots behind Zalatoris on four-under but hinted he doesn't expect the leader, or his nearest challenger Pereira, to keep it going. "The two guys are at the top of the leaderboard are very new to this position," McIlroy said. "They've obviously played very well, but I thought the three up-and-downs on the last three holes were important just to keep myself within a few shots."

Justin Thomas is second favourite for the US PGA after carding two 67s

Thomas looks a threat

McIlroy likely has his eye on 2017 champion Justin Thomas, who shot two 67s from the tough side of the draw to sit alone in third on six-under. 

Thomas is second favourite at 4.9 while another major champion, two-time Masters champion Bubba Watson is solo fourth after making nine birdies in a brilliant 63.

With 15 players within seven shots of the lead and 22 players under par, the championship is wide open despite Southern Hills' reputation as a course that's impossible for weekend chasers.

We still expect the cream to rise to the top with Thomas (5.2) coming from the tough side of the draw to become our top choice to win his second major.

With the course set to become more challenging, we're looking at players with great short games to challenge Thomas. That means McIlroy, Matthew Fitzpatrick and Cameron Smith should remain in the hunt come Sunday.

Recommended bets

Justin Thomas @ 5.2

Rory McIlroy @ 11.5

Matthew Fitzpatrick @ 29

Cameron Smith @ 30