The Players Championship: in-form Scheffler primed for Sawgrass challenge

The fifth major

It’s the PGA Tour’s flagship event of the season with a stellar field battling it out over an iconic course for the tournament known as the ‘fifth major’ in golf – The Players Championship. 

TPC Sawgrass is one of those courses widely known around the world, with the infamous island green of the par-three 17^th a highlight of the golfing calendar by itself. 

There’s no Bryson DeChambeau due to injury, but still plenty of talking points and all the other big names jostling to become the Players champion and pocket $3.6million from the largest prize pot in golf of $20million. 

With an unsettled weather forecast it could get really interesting down that closing stretch, especially at that 17^th hole – where we saw 66 balls find the water last year. 

And just to add another layer, Jon Rahm’s position as world number one is under threat from four players – with Collin Morikawa, Viktor Hovland, Patrick Cantlay and Scottie Scheffler all mathematically in with a chance of grabbing top spot.

Rahm favourite to remain top dog 

Rahm is the pre-tournament favourite (though at 14) as he’s world number one for a reason, usually plays better in stronger fields and has been improving at Sawgrass every year, finishing 63rd, 12th and ninth in the last three years. 

Defending champion Justin Thomas is 19.5 and also has a third place to his name around here along with three top 10s in his last four starts, but since nobody has ever defended this title then it seems a huge ask. 

Collin Morikawa is a 21 shot and certainly has the game and the temperament to succeed around Sawgrass. He leads in total Strokes Gained stats this season and this course tests every facet of the game. 

Patrick Cantlay is as solid as they come at 25 with three top 5s and a top 10 in his last five starts, while Rory McIlroy and Viktor Hovland are 24 shots and arrive after eventful endings at the Arnold Palmer last week. 

And the in-form Scottie Scheffler is the other big fancy this week at 30, with the American winning two of his last three outings (finishing seventh in between), and riding such a high in confidence must make him a big danger this week. 

Jon Rahm's status as world number one could be under threat depending on results at Sawgrass this weekend

No real pattern to the winners 

Scheffler, McIlroy, Cantlay and Hovland all missed the cut last year while Morikawa finished 41^st, but that’s no real worry as three of the last six winners all missed the cut the year before and most have patchy records in the event. 

Most have a sprinkling of good finishes at Sawgrass and plenty of experience around the track before winning, and even though it will be just Morikawa’s second appearance he can point to Si Woo Kim who won on his second start in 2017. 

Winners here are usually in decent form and that brings all our major contenders into play, with Hovland’s superb form line of 4-1-MC-4-2 coming here the pick behind Scheffler’s quick-fire double success. 

McIlroy was hugely disappointed with his weekend at Bay Hill last week after firing into contention, but after voicing his frustration at course conditions you can forgive that negative and expect a big run here. 

The expected rain will play right into the 2019 Players champion’s hands as he’s one of the best in the world playing a wet course.  

Matt Fitzpatrick also comes into consideration here at a bigger price of 48 as he finished ninth last year in his fifth appearance, ninth last week at Bay Hill after an improving weekend, and also ranks second behind Morikawa in total Strokes Gained this season. 

Consider outsiders and veterans 

The cream usually rises to the top but considering the unsettled weather forecast and the odd big-priced winner that’s come in at the Players then don’t rule out a few longer odds shots, where you can at least make some each-way money. 

Kim was around a 1000 outsider for his victory, while Webb Simpson (100) Martin Kaymer (100) and even Rickie Fowler (70) claimed the trophy at larger odds. 

Veteran players can also get around Sawgrass with relative comfort as Lee Westwood showed last year when finishing second, yet he’s a 300 outsider this year. 

Former champion Sergia Garcia finished ninth last year and Paul Casey fifth, and both are 100 chances this year as they’ve not shown much recent form. 

As for those outsiders, Tommy Fleetwood had a top 20 last week and had finished seventh and fifth before last year’s missed cut, and that missed cut isn’t necessarily a negative so he could go close at 130 given he can play in bad weather too. 

And for a name out of nowhere what about Brian Harman who has had some streaky form this year, going 3-MC-14-MC heading to Sawgrass - where he’s finished eighth and third in the last two years.  

He’s got plenty of experience here and another top 10 here to boot so his odds of 160 might look more than generous. 

Recommended bets 

Collin Morikawa @ 19.5  

Rory McIlroy @ 24  

Matt Fitzpatrick @ 48  

Brian Harman @ 160