The Masters: Smith leads the betting but watch out for Fitzpatrick

Smith the favourite

It started with a squelch but ended with the promise of firm and fast conditions and weekend carnage as a stiff breeze dried out Augusta National like a Georgia peach in the sunshine.

With the course softened by torrential rain on Tuesday and Wednesday, Sungjae Im fired a five-under 67 to top the leaderboard by a shot from Cameron Smith with former champions Danny Willett and Dustin Johnson tied for third with Chile’s Joaquim Niemann and world number one Scottie Scheffler on three-under.

Smith, the Aussie with the mullet, made eight birdies in 16 holes but left frustrated that he bookended his round with double-bogey sixes. The Players Championship winner is the betting favourite (7.4), just ahead of 2020 champion Johnson (8.6) and the in-form Scheffler (9.8).

Ferocious test awaits

But while nearly two inches of rain soaked the course in the build-up, the sub-air system was humming on full power all day and coupled with bright sunshine, it had dried out considerably by the end of the day with no sign of standing water in the spectator areas and the muddy areas drying out.

With cool, sunny conditions and 30 mph winds forecast for today, players can expect a ferocious test over the next three days. That could suit the guile of a Tiger Woods (42), whose remarkable recovery from injury continued when he chiselled out a one-under 71.

Woods is still rated a less likely winner than Rory McIlroy (36), who hit the ball well from tee to green but again scored poorly, especially with his short irons and putter. He shot 73, three-putting from 16 feet at the 14th when putting to go two-under, dropped another shot at the 16th with a push into sand and only avoided a 74 with a brilliant sand save at the last.

World number one Scottie Scheffler shot a three-under-par 69 to put himself in contention for a maiden Masters win

Niemann offers value 

Leader Im, who was tied second on his debut last year, is now 11 to win. But better value is on offer for Chile’s Joaquin Niemann (19.5), who recently followed in the footsteps of Masters winners Adam Scott, Dustin Johnson, Bubba Watson and Phil Mickelson by winning at Riviera.

Will Zalatoris, second to Hideki Matsuyama last year, still looks tempting at 28, while those with a love for the veterans may be tempted by 50-year old Pádraig Harrington, who was two-under after four when he might have been four-under but slipped to a 74. High winds and tough conditions will suit the Dubliner.

Fellow Irishman Shane Lowry slam-dunked his tee shot at the fourth only to watch the ball ricochet to the fringe. A 74 sees him rated at 110, but he’s unlikely to hit his iron shots as poorly over the next three days.

Nobody has come from outside the top 33 after the first round to win the Masters, so we’re going for the grinder Matthew Fitzpatrick to build on a closing birdie for a 71 to contend for his first major. He thrives on tough, windy courses and as the course dries out, his brilliant putting stroke and superb short game make him an interesting choice at 40.

Recommended bets

Cameron Smith @ 7.4

Joaquin Niemann @ 19.5

Matthew Fitzpatrick @ 40