The Masters early look: Augusta door open for surging Smith
Paul Higham
17 March 2022
Matsuyama ready to defend title
It’s the first golf major of the year and in many eyes the most magical and prestigious, as the world’s best head to Augusta National for the 86th staging of The Masters.
Whether it’s the mystique of Augusta and the fact that this major is held at the same legendary course every year, or that it’s the first major of the year with so much anticipation and build-up – it's always an eagerly-awaited affair.
Hideki Matsuyama is the defending champion but not seen as too much of a threat to defend his title as a 38 chance to become just the fourth player to claim back-to-back Green Jackets.
Rahm heads the betting
World number one Jon Rahm leads the betting at 10, and will likely go off as favourite come Thursday 7 April at The Masters. He’s had four straight top 10s at Augusta and has the game to go close again.
Rory McIlroy once again goes in search of the final missing piece of his grand slam bid, with just the Green Jacket yet to win of golf’s four majors – but there’s a sense the longer it goes, the more the pressure builds.
McIlroy is again among the market leaders at 18, and will continue to be while his game remains at such a high level, but he’s not finishing off good starts or getting wins, and that’s a worry.
World number one Jon Rahm is the early favourite to follow up his US Open win last year with victory in The Masters
Recipe for Augusta success
It’s very much horses for courses at Augusta, with the nuances and subtleties of the famous course, in particular the greens, taking some time to adjust to. There’s also the wow factor that catches golfers off guard.
Winners here have usually had a good few spins around Augusta and usually posted a good finish before going on to claim the Green Jacket – eight of the last 10 winners have had a top 20 here and nine of the last 10 made the cut the year before.
1979 champion Fuzzy Zoeller remains the only winner on debut at The Masters following the first ever two runnings of the event.
Jordan Spieth went very close on debut before winning the year after, and he’s as good a course specialist as you would want. The bookies are scared of his spectacular form here so he’s a short priced 13 despite not having the best form generally.
Spieth’s short game is what makes him dangerous here as two things are crucial to win around Augusta – your approach play to the greens, and scrambling ability. Knowing the right spots on the greens is everything, but when things go wrong the ability to get up-and-down wins you the tournament.
Putting always comes up when talking about the Augusta greens, but looking at the stats of recent winners it’s clear that iron play and scrambling are more important factors. Taking advantage of the par fives will also usually put you in a great position.
Smith surges as big guns struggle
Among the market leaders Justin Thomas (16) has been in decent form but not spectacular, while the November 2020 Masters champion Dustin Johnson (17.5) has been stone cold of late, and the likes of Patrick Cantlay at 21 and Brooks Koepka at 22 have also been off the pace.
Collin Morikawa at 14 is the one among the favorites who has enough decent form to go along with his wonderful iron play that should give him a big chance, but it really is a wide-open contest.
Any one or more of these could come good at Augusta of course, but right now the door looks open for recent Players champion Cameron Smith to add a first major as a leading 19.5 fancy.
The Australian was outstanding at TPC Sawgrass and showed nerves of steel along with his final-round birdie blitz to prove he’s got the game and the temperament to win a major. His tee shot right at the flag at 17 in the final round, under a world of pressure, was breathtaking.
He’s also got some eye-catching Augusta form as he finished second behind Johnson in 2020 when becoming the first player in Masters history to shoot all four rounds in one tournament in the 60s.
He added a T10 last year and has another T5 to his name in five appearances, showed a razor-sharp short game at Sawgrass and was spot on with his approach play. He’s the early one to beat.
Wide-open affair
Looking at the other form players this year – Scottie Scheffler was as hot as they come with his two quick wins and he’s had two top 20s in two Masters appearances.
With four top 10s in the other majors, he’s got major form and now some major confidence after finally finding that winning touch. He’ll be a threat at 28.
Viktor Hovland has been in sensational form with four wins in the last year and has been challenging weekly on the PGA Tour, so it’s now time he stepped up in the majors.
The 24-year-old Norwegian was the low amateur at the 2019 Masters, but has no major top 10 to his name yet and the big worry for the 20 chance is whether his short game can stand up to the test. Poor chipping can cost you dear here so keeping that error-free will be key to his chances.
Paul Casey has four Masters top 10s and looks right at the top of his game and would be a decent each-way shout as a 55 chance, while Scotsman Robert MacIntyre could give you a run at 75 as Augusta sets up nicely for left-handers they say, and he finished T12 on debut last year.
Will Zalatoris has shown a few glimpses of the form that saw him enjoy a fairytale T2 here last year on his debut, and he’s a 34 chance to do a Jordan Spieth and go one better on his return trip.
Louis Oosthuizen always seems to crop up in the big events and did lose out here in a playoff to Bubba Watson in 2012. That’s his only top 10 in 13 appearances but he’s got the game to go closer this time around and is a live outsider at 44.
Recommended bets
Jordan Spieth @ 13
Cameron Smith @ 19.5
Will Zalatoris @ 34
Paul Higham
17 March 2022
