RBC Canadian Open: why it might be Shane Lowry's time to shine this weekend

Surprise surprise?

A rain-softened tree-lined course looks like the perfect feasting ground for a Rory McIlroy still seeking his first PGA Tour win this year.

But if this week’s RBC Canadian Open at the St. George’s Golf & Country Club for the first time since 2019 has anything to recommend it to golf bettors, it’s the likelihood of a surprise winner as the stars think about next week’s US Open at Brookline.

McIlroy is “defending” the title he won in his first appearance in the Canadian Open at Hamilton Golf Club in Ontario three years ago, but he was far from his best in finishing tied-18th at the Memorial Tournament last week.

McIlroy not great value

While he’s won the week before a major in the past, memorably lifting the 2014 Bridgestone Invitational as Open champion before winning this second US PGA the following week, he’s not great value at 11.5 behind world No 1 Scottie Scheffler (10).

With Cameron Smith (13.5), PGA champion Justin Thomas (12), Sam Burns (18.5) and Matt Fitzpatrick (20) the biggest names in the field, we’re going for Shane Lowry (21) to end his near three-year wait for a win that dates to The Open at Royal Portrush.

The Irish star will be looking to win on the PGA Tour for the third time, and with rain forecast from Tuesday to Thursday, he won’t be put out on a course that will play soft. He was also tied second behind McIlroy in just his second Canadian Open in 2019.

The fact that he’s been playing some of the best golf of his career, finishing second in the Honda Classic and third in the Masters and the RBC Heritage, would indicate a win is long overdue.

Rory McIlroy could only manage tied-18th in last week's Memorial Tournament

Scrambling skills required

Driving accuracy will be critical as the greens at St. George’s are some of the smallest greens on the PGA Tour, measuring just 4,000 square feet.

Lowry is straight enough to put himself in position and aggressive enough with his irons to take advantage. He misses greens but is ranked first for scrambling, heading to a course where scrambling is one of the key skills required.

Add to that the fact he’s among the top 15 putters on tour these days and he’s got all the tools needed to finally get that elusive win.

Canada’s Corey Conners is also arrow-straight and a decent bet at 24, but we fancy Brendon Todd (85), ranked fifth for driving accuracy on tour this year, to build on his third-place finish in the Charles Schwab Challenge two weeks ago, and win for the first time since he won Bermuda and Mayakoba in a three-week stretch in 2019.

Longer odds, such as Mark Hubbard at 250 and Danny Willett at 300, might also be worth a flutter given their steady games from tee to green.

Recommended bets

Shane Lowry @ 21

Brendon Todd @ 85

Mark Hubbard @ 250

Danny Willett @ 300