Phoenix Open: talented Thomas determined to bloom in desert

Jon Rahm might be world number one and the clear betting favourite at 9 for the WM Phoenix Open, but nobody has been better at TPC Scottsdale over the past five years than Justin Thomas.

Yes, South Africa's Branden Grace has the same scoring average as the American Ryder Cup player (67.75). But he's played it just twice and world number seven Thomas has finished T17th, 3rd, T3 and T13 in his last four appearances, shooting four rounds of 65 or better since 2018.

Thomas is second favourite at 13.5 and it's little wonder as it's a venue he says he loves.

"I think and hope it really is a place that I'll win multiple times in my career," he said last year. "I would like to get it out of the way soon, so I can stop guessing and hoping."

Jon Rahm is the clear favourite to win in Phoenix, but the value might lie elsewhere

Scheffler overdue a win

Everyone in US golf is trying to guess when Thomas' Ryder Cup teammate Scottie Scheffler will win his first PGA Tour event. It is almost bizarre that the current world number 15 (he's been as high as 11th) has yet to add a PGA Tour win to his brace of victories on the Korn Ferry Tour in 2019.

Scheffler missed the cut in Phoenix in 2020, but after finishing seventh last year, he went on to record another nine top-10 finishes, including three runners-up spots in a standout season, culminating in that Ryder Cup singles win over Rahm.

After finishing T25 in The American Express in Palm Spring and T20 at Torrey Pines in the Farmers Insurance Open, he looks good value at 28.

The field is not short on quality players with 28 of the world's top 50 teeing it up.

Norwegian Viktor Hovland (19.5) stands out as he seeks his fourth win in six events. But the world number three missed the cut on his debut in Phoenix in 2020 and better value lies elsewhere.

Top ball-strikers do well in Phoenix, as proved by back-to-back wins for Masters champion Hideki Matsuyama in 2017 and 2018 and Brooks Koepka last year.

Chile's Mito Pereira fits the bill and, while he is making his debut in Scottsdale, he's on an upward curve and true value at 200 in his first start of the year.

However, Jordan Spieth is a man coming back into form as he showed with his runner-up finish to Tom Hoge in the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am on Sunday.

Spieth has three top-10 finishes in his last four starts at TPC Scottsdale and at 27, he's a solid alternative to Scheffler and a man who knows how to go low at the venue, having shot 61 in his comeback season last year.

Rickie Fowler at looks too far from form to contend, but after finishing second to Harold Varner III in the Saudi International on Sunday, two-time Masters champion Bubba Watson at 55 has the game right now to win at a venue where he has had two runners-up finishes and another two top-four finishes in his last eight visits.

Recommended bets

Justin Thomas to win @ 13.5

Scottie Scheffler to win @ 28

Mito Pereira each way @ 200