Pebble Beach Pro-Am: take the outsider value in weakened field

It’s like the PGA Tour is on a bucket list golfing holiday as it moves from Torrey Pines up the Californian coast to one of the most iconic courses in the world for the Pebble Beach Pro-Am. 

The magical Monterrey Peninsula is one of the greatest stretches of land for golf courses in the world and three top tracks will be used for this week’s Pebble Beach Pro-Am, a tournament first staged way back in 1937. 

156 professionals and their amateur partners will play one round each at Pebble Beach, Spyglass Hill and Monterey Peninsula Country Club before the top 60 pros and top 25 pro-am teams return to Pebble Beach for Sunday’s final round. 

All three tracks offer something a bit different. Spyglass is usually the tougher course and is more of an inland test, with Pebble Beach and Monterrey having more exposure to the Pacific Coast.  

The Shore Course at Monterrey offers up much bigger greens than the tiny dancefloors Pebble tests competitors with – and if the wind gets up around the nine holes next to the ocean, then the dream destination can soon turn into a nightmare. 

Cantlay heads field missing top stars 

It’s a shame that such an iconic venue won’t have such a star-studded line-up with 8.6 favourite Patrick Cantlay the only member of the world’s top 10 playing this week. In fact, only 10 of the world’s top 50 are making the trip as the lure of the Saudi International has attracted many big names to cash-in over in the Middle East. 

Long, in fact very long, rounds playing with amateur partners in what are often chilly coastal conditions can also put some players off – even more so when there’s a bag of cash waiting from them in the Saudi desert. 

Jordan Spieth (26) and Daniel Berger (15) are two more recognisable names and they must have chances – Spieth has won this event before and was third last year, while Berger is the defending champion and has finished fifth and 20th in his two starts this year. 

Will Zalatoris hasn’t played well here in two starts but he’s only a 23 shot here after finishing second and sixth in his two 2022 starts so is bang in form – as is Jason Day who finished third at Torrey Pines last week in a nice return to form, and is a 29 chance here at a tournament he does particularly well in. 

Day has the best scoring average over the last five years of the event and has been a consistent threat with five top-five finishes in the last seven years. He looks likely to go close again 

Former world number one Jordan Spieth has won this event before and came third last year. (AP Photo/Charlie Riedel)

An event fit for an outsider? 

Three of the last six winners here have been tripled-digit odds and with so many big names missing there’s a decent chance that another outsider could give us a good run this week. 

At not quite three figures but at 40 we see Seamus Power, who hasn’t gone well here in the past but has been in solid and consistent form on the PGA Tour – another win looks right around the corner. 

Kevin Kisner also doesn’t have the best form here, but has successive top 10s in Hawaii in the book as he arrives here as a 65 chance, and fellow Kevin, Kevin Streelman has a runners-up spot here among six straight top 20 finishes – so 70 looks a big price for a course specialist. 

And if we’re looking at horses for course, then what about a punt on Brandon Harkins who is a whopping 170 as he tees it up fresh off a victory on the Korn Ferry Tour last week. 

Harkins has played in the event twice and finished T28 and T15 and has also won around here in the Pebble Beach Invitational just last year – shooting 21-under in an event that also involves amateurs. He could at least sneak you a place. 

Recommended bets

Jason Day @ 29

Kevin Streelman @ 70

Brandon Harkins @ 170

Brandon Harkins top 10 finish @ 12