Masters 2024: Can market-leader Scheffler win his second green jacket?

It's Masters week and the first of the year’s four golf majors tees off this Thursday as the gate to Magnolia Lane reopens to the game’s elite. The winner will get the coveted green jacket, a place amongst golfing royalty, a share of an expected $18 million prize pot and 750 FedEx Cup points.

Scottie Scheffler, who won the tournament in 2022, is a deserved short-priced favourite at 5.8. He arrives at Augusta in fine form following a second place in Houston which was preceded by back-to-back wins at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and a fiercely contested Players Championship.

Rory McIlroy (13.0) chases his first green jacket, an honour that would complete a career grand slam while Jon Rahm (14.5) now leads the LIV Golf charge as he looks to defend his Masters title. 

I'm keen on Patrick Cantlay (48.0) every year at Augusta National and he’s flying a little under the radar this time out - could he pull off a surprise at a bigger price? The race for top debutant honours also looks interesting with Ludvid Aberg (38.0) and Wyndham Clark (40.0) leading the charge.

I'm very interested in a LIV Golf angle here as the Masters draws close and the main reason for this is the LIV players warmed up playing a competitive tournament at the Blue Monster, Doral. The strategy last year on the LIV Tour was to play the week directly before each major, and it certainly worked at the Masters with Brooks Koepka and Phil Mickelson finishing T2.

Dustin Johnson says there are a lot of guys out there grinding and working hard, and one of those is the aforementioned Mickelson (290.0) who has been dedicating himself to his short game back in Whisper Rock. Bubba Watson (270.0) alluded to Phil talking about the shot-making required at Doral which is very similar to Augusta. Could we see a LIV player win the Masters in 2024? There are plenty of contenders – 13 in all travel from Florida.

The Course

Augusta National plays to a par 72, at circa 7,500 yards in length, and features generous landing areas between a strong treeline, laden with pine straw. There’s not much rough along the fairways or around the large segmented, tiered and undulating bentgrass greens. The surfaces can hit 14’ and higher on the stimpmeter and sub air systems are on hand in case the weather threatens to soften and slow things up.

We generally see fast and firm conditions at the Masters though and a fiery Augusta means higher scoring. Soft conditions in 2023 meant the course was abused by the big names. Scoring in the earlier part of the tournament was low and the round-by-round scoring markets are always a strong angle to look at. 

Power hitting and precision mid-to-long iron play get the job done around Augusta. Taking advantage of the par 5s is key. The contenders will have to yield a hot flat stick from the four to 12 foot range on Masters week. Course experience helps and course management can be key. We can look forward to seeing Amen Corner which is the iconic trio of holes (11,12 13) that can change a round for the better or worse. Huge elevation changes throughout Augusta mean stamina is also a feature, and don’t forget a steely mentality will be needed down the stretch come Sunday.

The Contenders

I feel like LIV Golf Miami might be a real indication of how the LIV players may perform at the Masters and I like their inflated prices. Three of them finished in the top six of the Masters in 2023.

Dustin Johnson (50.0 or 3.95 Top 10) is sixth in the LIV standings, and he echoes my sentiments in thinking the Doral track shares a lot of similarities with Augusta. He says the guys were there to prepare seriously, and a competitive event on that bomber’s paradise could be very beneficial. DJ is currently tenth in driving distance on the tour and seventh in birdies. The 39-year-old won LIV Golf Las Vegas and said he feels near his best. He was fifth in Mayakoba.

“I feel like it’s going to be good preparation going into Augusta just as far as it’s tough, it’s long, you have to take advantage of the par 5s. Anytime you’re playing a challenging golf course going into a major it’s good prep”.

Joaquin Niemann (32.0 or 3.35 Top 10) is a two-time winner on the LIV Golf Tour this season and he leads the standings. The South American blitzed the field in Jeddah with a score of -17 for three rounds and he beat good friend Sergio Garcia in a playoff at Mayakoba. The Chilean was also fourth in Hong Kong. He is freerolling after being given a Masters invite and goes to Augusta off the back of a top ten at Doral. Niemann ranks third in birdies, averaging over five per round. He lies second in greens in regulation, but most interestingly he sits behind only Bryson DeChambeau in the driving distance stats. 

Xander Schauffele (19.5 or 2.46 Top 10) arguably stands out most amongst the PGA Tour members in tier one of the Masters winner market. He owns some serious form here with three top ten finishes including a second and a third place finish in 2019 and 2021 respectively. Xander is coming off six top tens in eight starts and four of those were top fives. Schauffele was recently second at the Players Championship and has a top rating of 10.0 on my progressive form model coming into the event.

Bryson DeChambeau (50.0 or 4.0 Top 10) is seventh in the LIV standings and leads the driving distance stats. On paper, Augusta is a perfect course fit for Bryson who has portrayed this in fits and starts. ‘The Professor’ was sixth in Hong Kong, fourth in Jeddah, recorded another top ten in Vegas, and is still simmering nicely with a T7 at Doral. He says he feels the happiest he has been in a long time with the set of clubs he’s using, while in the past he had changed his setup ahead of Masters week. I can't argue with the 50s on offer!

Masters Outsider

The Golf Club of Houston was always a good precursor to the Masters and had a very similar setup. Players who could come in high on approaches to the fast, firm, and tiered greens at Redstone often did well, and one of the highest ball hitters on tour with his irons – Russell Henley (85.0 or 5.5 Top 10) – bagged a win there.

If we look at Henley’s Masters record, he has a lot of sneaky good finishes at Augusta – the best being fourth just last year. Henley is coming up on the rails with a couple of fourth-placed finishes in his last three events including at the Valero Texas Open last week. The four-time PGA Tour winner (from Georgia no less) can use his iron skills (he ranked 18th in SG: Approach and second in proximity in 2023) to go well again at the 2024 Masters.

Recommended Bets

Back Dustin Johnson to win @ 50.0 or 4.00 Top 10
Back Joaquin Niemann to win @ 32.0 or 3.20 Top 10
Back Xander Schauffele to win @ 18.0 or 2.38 Top 10
Back Bryson DeChambeau to win @ 48.0 or 4.10 Top 10
Back Russell Henley to win @ 85.0 or 5.50 Top 10