John Deere Classic: why Denny McCarthy can outshine Webb Simpson this weekend

Glover looking to go back-to-back

Lucas Glover is bidding to become the first golfer since Steve Stricker in 2011 to successfully defend the title in the John Deere Classic at TPC Deere Run.

The former US Open champion is at 75 to win just his fifth title on the PGA Tour but having not recorded a top-10 finish since the Sony Open in Hawaii in January, we prefer to look elsewhere for value this week.

With the Scottish Open and The Open looming, the field includes just nine of the top 100 in the world and none of the top 50.

World number 58 Webb Simpson and last week’s Travelers Champions runner-up Sahith Theegala, ranked 66th, are the two leading players in a weak field ahead of 75th ranked Christiaan Bezuidenhout and world No 80, Adam Hadwin.

Simpson leads the betting

Simpson, the 2012 US Open champion, is the favourite at 17.5, but we’re looking to 32 chance Denny McCarthy to break his PGA TOUR duck this week, despite missing the cut in his last two appearances in the event.

One of the best putters in the game, McCarthy showed form by following a tie for fifth in the Memorial Tournament with a tied seventh finish in the US Open at Brookline.

And while the field includes nine past champions in Glover (202), Dylan Frittelli (2019), Ryan Moore (2016), Zach Johnson (2012), Stricker (2009, ’10, ’11), Jonathan Byrd (2007), John Senden (2006), Sean O’Hair (2005) and Mark Hensby (2004), McCarthy has the precision game that could pay dividends in Illinois.

The John Deere Classic field doesn't include any players in the world's top 50, and only nine from the top 100

Long shot

At 48, Adam Long is another player with the putting game to make the birdies required to win an event where the winning score has been between 16 and 26-under par for the past 20 years.

Canadian Hadwin is back in Illinois for the first time since 2016 when he finished tied eighth. However, he’s 25 second favourite behind Simpson and you will get more bang for your buck with the in-form Nick Hardy (42), who looks to be trending towards his first PGA Tour win.

A Korn Ferry Tour graduate, Hardy struggled early in his rookie season but returned to the second-tier tour last month and finished second in the NV5 Invitational.

Since then, he’s played well, finishing 35th in the RBC Canadian Open, tied 14th in the US Open and tied eighth in last week’s Travelers Championship, indicating a positive upward trend in his game.

As for outsiders, JT Poston (40) looks to be rounding into form, as evidenced by his runner-up finish alongside Theegala at TPC River Highlands on Sunday. A man capable of going low — he's shot 62 three times — he was 22-under in his lone PGA Tour win at the Wyndham Championship in 2019.

Recommended bets

Adam Hadwin @ 25

Denny McCarthy @ 32

J.T. Poston @ 40

Adam Long @ 48