AT&T Byron Nelson: can Justin Thomas finally get over the line in Texas?

Big guns back in action

We’re back in Texas for the third time this year on the PGA Tour with the AT&T Byron Nelson taking place at TPC Craig Ranch in Dallas. 

It’s one of the more well-known tournaments on the PGA Tour schedule but a relatively new course, as the Tom Weiskopf-designed Craig Ranch held the event for the first time just last year. 

The venue has staged events on the Korn Ferry Tour so is known by some of the field, while there are more than a few Texans hoping for a home win this week. 

Nine of the top 20 are in the field to warm-up for next week’s US PGA Championship, including world number one and Masters champion Scottie Scheffler who returns after a two-week break. 

Jordan Spieth returns after a three-week rest following his victory at the RBC Heritage, and he’ll want a good tune-up as he goes for his career grand slam at next week’s major. 

Dustin Johnson tees it up for the first time since his wedding to Paulina Gretzky, while the likes of Xander Schauffele, Tommy Fleetwood and Francesco Molinari are making their debut in the event. 

Scheffler favoured to get back in the swing

It’s no surprise to see Scheffler as the 12 favourite to earn a remarkable fifth win of the season, given the way he won at Augusta. He’s won three of his last four singles events and it’s hard to find any holes in his game. 

Justin Thomas has been frustratingly consistent this season, having had six top 10 finishes in 11 events in 2022, and you get the feeling that he’ll find his first win of the campaign at some point – it’s 15 that it happens here. 

JT is doing everything right as he chases a first win in 14 months – he’s second in putting and birdies on the PGA Tour, third in par-five scoring average and fourth in par-four scoring. A win must be coming. 

Spieth is another of the Texas contingent, and he’s won twice in his home state but not at this event. He finished T9 here last year after a first-round 63, and the inviting fairways and low scoring should suit his game. 

Despite his recent win, Spieth is a 26 shot here with the likes of Johnson (24) and Schauffele (25) just slightly shorter. 

Scottie Scheffler returns from a two-week break to play in Texas, ahead of next week's PGA Championship at Southern Hills

Burns and Zalatoris worth backing  

Louisiana native Sam Burns has won four times in the southern states, has two PGA Tour wins this season and finished second here last year – so he’s got a lot going for him as a 22 shot. 

Along with Thomas, one of the best players on Tour without a win this season is Will Zalatoris, who has five top six finishes in eight events, including a T6 at the Masters. 

Another Dallas resident, Zalatoris says he has played TPC Craig Ranch hundreds of times and should go close once again in his search for a maiden PGA Tour win at 25. There’s a feeling that the floodgates could open for Zalatoris once he gets his first win, in a similar style to Scheffler. 

At some bigger prices, Jason Day is 55 and has shown signs of returning to form recently with successive top 20s, while Talor Gooch (50) will be able to keep up with the expected low-scoring as he leads the PGA Tour in eagles, and is T1 in par-three and T4 in par-five scoring. 

And if you’re after a huge longshot or a place bet, Ryan Palmer is a 200 outsider, but claims to hold the course record at TPC Craig Ranch: "I think I still own the course record here, either 60 or 61 from the back tees about 10 years ago,” he said. “There are a few holes that the PGA Tour will alter to make it tougher for the pros, but they’re pretty good at that.”

Recommended bets  

Justin Thomas @ 15 

Sam Burns @ 22 

Will Zalatoris @ 25