Arnold Palmer Invitational: McIlroy has Bay Hill form but watch out for Fitzpatrick

Rory raring to go

Rory McIlroy didn’t play the Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill until 2015, but he loves it so much, the four-time major winner hasn’t missed it since and it’s no surprise he’s near the top of the betting market again this week.

The Northern Irish star is the second favourite (13.5) behind world number one Jon Rahm (10.5) but I think the former world number one is the clear front-runner to pull on the famous red cardigan.

McIlroy has a superb record at the course that Arnie built, finishing tied 11th in 2015 and tied 27th in 2016 before stringing together five top-10s in a row, with the highlights his win in 2018 and top-five finishes in 2017 and 2020 for an average finish of ninth.

The contenders

Of the players to play the event at least three times, only South Korea’s Sunjae Im (32) has a comparable record, finishing third in 2019 and 2020 and tied 21st behind Bryson DeChambeau last year.

Big-hitting DeChambeau is a significant absentee this week, declaring on Monday that he was no more than 90 per cent fit, having withdrawn from the Saudi International a month ago, citing injuries to his left hand and hip.

In his absence, the biggest challengers to McIlroy are world number one Rahm, who is something of an unknown as he’s making his debut at Bay Hill, and world number four Viktor Hovland.

Despite finishing second in the Sentry Tournament of Champions, Rahm has yet to hit top form this season, while Hovland (19) has yet to finish better than tied 40th in three appearances in Orlando.

As one of the more demanding courses on the PGA Tour — it was ranked ninth hardest last season with a scoring average of 73.02 — it is expected to pose another formidable test this week, especially over the weekend.

The wind will be a factor from Friday and players who drive the ball well and hit a high percentage of greens in regulation will again fare well.

Jon Rahm is the favourite to win at Bay Hill despite this being his debut appearance in the event

Fitzpatrick equipped to contend

For that reason, England’s Matthew Fitzpatrick stands out as the best value among the leading players at 30. The Sheffield star was second in 2019, tied ninth in 2020 and tied 10th last year, indicating his liking for the course.

He ranks third on tour for proximity to the hole from the rough and second for putting inside 10 feet — two key indicators at a course where windy conditions can test scrambling abilities to the limit.

Masters champion Hideki Matsuyama at 26 is another quality player with the tools to conquer Bay Hill, given the strength of his game from tee to green.

The Japanese star has made the cut in his seven appearances, finishing tied 18th last year. He was only 39th in his last start in the Genesis Invitational at Riviera but having won the Sony Open and tied for eighth in the Phoenix Open already in 2022, he will be looking to contend again as he counts down to his Masters defence.

Strokes gained from tee to green is another key indicator when it comes to Bay Hill with Will Zalatoris (30) the leading contender in that category ahead of Rahm, Luke List (85), Fitzpatrick, Im and Russell Henley (85).

Recommended bets

Back Rory McIlroy @ 13.5

Back Matthew Fitzpatrick @ 30

Back Russell Henley @ 85