Alfred Dunhill Links Championship Predictions: Lowry and Lagergren can go close

The battle for European Ryder Cup qualification points continues in Scotland this week as numerous up-and-coming stars look to make their mark in the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship.

With Shane Lowry, Robert Macintyre and Guido Migliozzi proving successful in the first three events of the 2022/23 campaign, the race for the remaining spots on Luke Donald’s team is hotting up.

With just six automatic positions on offer, it’s a great opportunity for DP World Tour regulars, who would otherwise struggle to accumulate notable world ranking points, to make their mark. And, while Tommy Fleetwood, Rory McIlroy, Tyrrell Hatton and the aforementioned Shane Lowry are among the favourites, there are other players with good links course form that could spring a surprise.

Rory McIlroy: has unfinished business at St Andrews

Sweden’s Joakim Lagergren might have signed off with a 79 in the Open de France on Sunday, but he enters the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship on the back of four top-four finishes from his last six appearances in this competition.

Lagergren finished fourth in 2015 and 2016, before tying for 12th in 2017. He followed his first missed cut a year later, by finishing tied-third in 2019 and tied-second behind Danny Willett last year.

McIlroy (5.7) is the betting favourite this week and it’s understandable given his record in the event. While he ended in 63rd in 2017 and 26th in 2019 on his last two starts, he has three runner-up finishes and a third-place in his six previous appearances since his breakthrough year in 2007. McIlroy also has unfinished business at St Andrews after losing out to Cameron Smith in The 150th Open Championship this summer.

US Open champion Matt Fitzpatrick is the current second-favourite at 14, but, with three missed cuts in his last five appearances in this event, I prefer BMW PGA Championship winner Lowry (14.5), who tied for fourth behind Willett last year.

Willett will look to retain the title following his recent disappointment in the Fortinet Championship at Silverado Resort, where a three-putt bogey and Max Homa’s chip-in birdie on the 72nd hole denied him victory. But he might need a while to recover from that ending, so preference is for Fleetwood (22) to end his near three-year wait for a win that dates back to the 2019 Nedbank Golf Challenge. The Englishman has a good record in the event with six top-10s in ten starts, that includes runner-up finishes in 2014 and 2018.

Two more selections tickle my fancy. Tyrell Hatton is as dangerous as they come in the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship - he claimed the title in 2016 and 2017, before ending tied-second, tied-15th and tied-second in his last three starts in the Pro-Am event.

While veteran Pádraig Harrington has been in superb form on the PGA Tour Champions. At a huge price (100), the 2002 and 2006 champion might be worth a flutter given his scoring average at this event remains an impressive 69.71.

Recommended golf trades

Back Shane Lowry @ 14.5
Back Tyrrell Hatton @ 17
Back Tommy Fleetwood @ 22
Back Pádraig Harrington @ 100
Back Joakim Lagergren @ 160