Spanish Grand Prix: Phillip Horton has a 12.5 tip for Sunday's race in Barcelona

Spanish GP betting preview

A pattern has begun to emerge across the opening five events in Formula 1 and it is clear that the title contenders this season are Ferrari and Red Bull Racing.

Ferrari’s F1-75 and Red Bull’s RB18 have taken all five pole positions and victories so far, 3-2 to Ferrari in qualifying, and 3-2 to Red Bull in race trim, with their respective cars displaying varying strengths and weaknesses.

Ferrari’s car bounces more, yet this does not seem to inhibit its results like Mercedes, and tends to perform better on low fuel across one lap and on harder tyres in the race.

Red Bull’s car appears significantly more potent in a straight line and on softer tyres during the early stages of a grand prix, which was a key asset in Max Verstappen’s win last time out in Miami.

Familiar circuit

Reliability remains a weakness for Red Bull, having suffered glitches once more in Miami, while Ferrari has yet to bring tangible updates as it plays the long-game in the development race.

Ferrari has been coy on when it will bring updates but it has been tipped to do so in Barcelona. The circuit is a permanent facility that tests all areas of a car, and one which provides a good reference for teams back at the factory, ahead of a string of street tracks in Monaco, Azerbaijan and Canada.

It is also a circuit at which teams and drivers have extensive experience due to its status as the regular host of pre-season testing, including in 2022, with the official shakedown having taken place in February.

Barcelona is also a venue that brings back good memories for the world champion. Verstappen’s maiden win came at the track in 2016, aged 18, on his debut for Red Bull.

Lewis Hamilton has won the last five Spanish Grands Prix, but his chances of making it six in a row are slim

Good Sainz for Carlos?

One driver to keep an eye on is Ferrari’s Carlos Sainz, who will be racing in front of his own supporters this weekend.

Sainz, available to back at 12.5, is the first of the front-running drivers to have a home grand prix in 2022 and he has always performed well at the Circuit de Barcelona-Catalunya.

Sainz has always scored points on home turf, taking a best of sixth with Toro Rosso in 2016 and with McLaren in 2020, but for the first time in his career he has a race-winning car rather than one mired in the midfield.

A podium in Miami gave Sainz a confidence boost after back-to-back retirements and he is seeking his maiden victory after 145 starts in Formula 1. Where better to do so than on home soil?

Spain also has another representative in the shape of two-time champion Fernando Alonso, and the last of his 32 grand prix wins came in Barcelona, a scarcely believable nine years ago.

His 2022 season has so far been miserable in terms of results, taking just two points from five events, to sit a paltry 16^th in the championship.

His pure pace has been significantly better and at some point a wretched run of misfortune or misjudgements will surely come to a close – meaning he could be a good bet for a top 10 result, which is currently a 1.64 chance.

Hamilton’s stronghold but a sixth unlikely

Since Verstappen’s maiden victory in 2016 Barcelona has been a stronghold for Lewis Hamilton and Mercedes.

Hamilton has won the last five Spanish Grand Prix (2017-2021), last year defeating Verstappen by 15 seconds, but six in a row is an unlikely proposition, with Hamilton trading at 24.

Mercedes brought updates to its W13 in Miami, and went quickest on Friday through George Russell, but regressed to being third-fastest thereafter. It got a snapshot of the car’s pace, justifying its belief that it has potential, but is still yet to understand how to extract it consistently.

Mercedes has only twice finished on the podium this season, and on both occasions it came through Red Bull unreliability rather than pure pace.

Despite that, and a couple of poor qualifying results, Russell is the only driver on the grid to have finished in the top five at every race so far in 2022. 

Recommended bets:

Sainz @ 12.5 

Russell top 6 @ 1.44