Monaco Grand Prix: Leclerc needs luck as Verstappen aims to go back-to-back

No home comforts

Most drivers have home grands prix – but very few have a home grand prix to the extent of Charles Leclerc and Monaco.

Leclerc was born and raised in the tiny Principality, is a bona fide Monegasque rather than someone who moved once they found wealth, and even travelled to school on the streets that make up the circuit.

He often recounts his first memory of Formula 1 being from the balcony of a friend’s apartment that overlooks the circuit. Yet, so far in his motorsport career Monaco has not been a happy hunting ground for Leclerc.

His Monaco Formula 1 debut was wrecked in 2018 by a brake failure while in 2019 his exit in the first stage of qualifying was followed by a puncture in the race after his aggressive approach backfired.

Leclerc took pole for Monaco’s 2021 return, after its pandemic-enforced absence, but was unable to even take the start after a car failure on his reconnaissance lap to the grid.

Even in his dominant Formula 2 title-winning campaign in 2017 he failed to register a point in either of the races held in Monaco.

Can Leclerc turn it around in 2022?

Leclerc (2.04) has already won twice, and has taken four pole positions from six this year – and everyone knows how crucial pole is in Monaco. But those who bet on Leclerc have been warned about the ‘Monaco curse’.

Victories in Monaco have been spread across the board in recent years. Sebastian Vettel in 2017 was followed by Daniel Ricciardo in 2018, Lewis Hamilton in 2019, before Max Verstappen dominated from a net pole in 2021 after Leclerc’s exit.

The last driver to defend a Monaco win was Nico Rosberg, who won three on the bounce from 2013 through 2015, though Verstappen (3.3) has all the tools to go for two in a row this weekend.

Verstappen’s victory in Spain on Sunday was his third in succession and means he has turned a 46-point deficit into a six-point advantage in the space of just three race weekends.

Qualifying, though, is critical in Monaco and Verstappen’s Saturday record in 2022 has not been great. Just a single pole from six attempts means he and Red Bull will have to place an additional emphasis on one-lap performance through the build-up to qualifying.

Lewis Hamilton came from the back of the field to finish fifth in Barcelona and believes Mercedes could soon be challenging again

Mercedes could crash the party

Mercedes has not yet been discussed as victory contenders in 2022 amid the issues it has faced with its W13.

But in Spain senior figures conveyed their belief that they have now got a handle on the bouncing that was stymying its prospects across the opening five grands prix.

Now that has been addressed it can turn its focus to performance. In effect, Mercedes is five or six grands prix behind its rivals in terms of understanding and development – but it can now start pushing on.

Mercedes arrives in Monaco off the back of its strongest weekend display in Spain, with George Russell third, and Lewis Hamilton recovering from a first-lap puncture to storm to fifth.

That kind of performance was unthinkable just a handful of weeks ago. Russell described Spain as the start of Mercedes’ season while Hamilton outlined that the pace “gives me great hope that at some stage we will be fighting for a win.”

It would be a leap to expect Mercedes to vault into victory contention in Monaco, but it is now in a position where it can profit if Red Bull and Ferrari falter. Pessimism and realism have given way to cautious optimism over its prospects across the remainder of 2022.

Recommended bets

Verstappen @ 3.4

Hamilton top 3 @ 3.2