Formula 1: why Hamilton is an outsider as Ferrari seek home advantage

Formula 1’s fourth round of the season brings the championship back to Europe, and to Italy, for the Emilia Romagna Grand Prix. The event takes place in the Italian commune of Imola, at permanent circuit Autodromo Enzo e Dino Ferrari, which winds its way between the parklands and sleepy residential streets of the town.

It joined Formula 1’s calendar in 1980 and from 1981 through 2006 held the annual San Marino Grand Prix, in deference to the nearby microstate. During that run it gained a reputation as a narrow and tricky circuit, with several controversial moments, and wild celebrations if local team Ferrari ever triumphed.

Formula 1 ended its annual Imola voyage after 2006 but in the pandemic-hit 2020 season it was a surprise addition to a heavily restructured calendar, taking on the name of the Emilia Romagna
region in which it is located. That was intended to be a one-off, but it stayed for 2021, and subsequently secured a four-year deal to remain as a permanent event through at least 2025.

Ferrari at home

Due to the pandemic there were no fans present at Imola in both 2020 and 2021 – though some still got their eye in, using cherry-pickers, trees or overlooking balconies to catch a glimpse of the action.

With fans back in 2022 Imola is poised to turn red – for it is Ferrari’s local track. The squad’s factory is only 80km up the road at Maranello, and it has waited a long time for success. While it won Italy’s national grand prix, held at Monza, as recently as 2019, its last Imola triumph came back in 2006, when legend Michael Schumacher delivered the goods.

And Ferrari has good reason to be confident heading into the Emilia Romagna Grand Prix. Charles Leclerc has two firsts and a second from the opening three grands prix and also two pole
positions and a front-row start – which is a strong pointer that Ferrari has a fast and compliant car that can work at different tracks. He undoubtedly enters the weekend as favourite following his
commanding display in Australia, having opened a 34-point advantage in the world championship.

It is also a home grand prix for another squad, AlphaTauri, who are based just 15km away in Faenza, but they’re a long shot for success, as they enter the event eighth in the championship.

Hamilton will hope a lack of lengthy straights aides him this weekend

A good omen for champs?

Imola only returned to Formula 1’s schedule two years ago but in both 2020 and 2021 the winner of the Emilia Romagna GP went on to take the crown. Lewis Hamilton was victorious in 2020 en route to his seventh world title while last season it was win number one of Max Verstappen’s first title-winning campaign.

Mercedes’ challenging start to the 2022 campaign makes Hamilton a firm outsider but the relative absence of lengthy straights at Imola could mask some of the weaknesses of the car.
Verstappen has not lacked speed in 2022 but he has lacked reliability.

Verstappen has been among the front-runners at every grands prix but separate fuel-related issues in Bahrain and Australia while running second have left him 46 points behind Leclerc at this early stage of the season. If the Red Bull runs reliably then expect Verstappen to be Leclerc’s main opponent for victory – but with two failures out of three so far it has not been an easy start to his title defence.

Will format change help outsiders?

Formula 1 will hold its first Sprint race of the season on Saturday, which sets the grid for Sunday’s grand prix, leaving just one build-up practice session prior to Friday’s qualifying session. That will help those who can hit the ground running and define a strong set-up in the sole one-hour practice session before those car changes are locked in.

Current forecasts also indicate wet weather throughout Friday, ahead of a fine and dry Saturday and Sunday, which could offer an opportunity to those outside of the usual contenders.

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