Formula 1 Australian Grand Prix: why Melbourne will suit Red Bull and Ferrari

Return to Oz

Formula 1 is returning to Australia’s Albert Park Circuit for the first time in three years for the third round of the 2022 championship.

The 2020 grand prix was called off just hours before the start of practice as the pandemic worsened, while the 2021 round was postponed and then cancelled due to travel restrictions.

Courtesy of the vaccine, and a partial relaxation of Australia’s previously strict border controls, Formula 1 is venturing back to the country.

Formula 1 uses the suburban roads that surround the lake in Albert Park, located just a short journey from the centre of Melbourne, which provides a stunning cityscape backdrop.

Circuit changes 

Albert Park joined Formula 1’s calendar in 1996, traditionally as the season-opening event, but for 2022 there have been some crucial changes.

As round three, rather than round one, it means teams have more data and experience with their cars compared to previous Melbourne events.

But more importantly several key corners have been widened and reprofiled, with one chicane removed entirely, in order to enhance the quality and quantity of racing. Event organisers are expecting a quicker overall lap time.

That should favour teams with a stronger overall package, such as Ferrari and Red Bull, giving their drivers greater confidence to attack a fast circuit that has perilously little run-off. 

The event is also a few weeks later than its usual mid-late March slot, meaning there is the prospect of slightly cooler weather as Melbourne heads into autumn, with a greater risk of rain.  

Melbourne’s weather is notoriously fickle but if that does come to fruition then those who react swiftly and accurately could land themselves in a strong position.

Lewis Hamilton's Mercedes has struggled for speed during the first two races of the season

Assessing past form

Formula 1 cars have not taken to Melbourne’s tarmac since March 2019 which makes past form a difficult read, though not an impossible one. A lot has changed in 37 months – only six of the 20 drivers are with the same teams.

It has been a prosperous circuit for seven-time world champion Lewis Hamilton in qualifying. Hamilton has a stunning one-lap record around Albert Park, topping qualifying each year between 2014 and 2019, bringing his total at the venue up to eight.

Yet in the race he has been less successful, converting his eight poles into just two victories, the last of which came in 2015. He has also made his worst start to a season in over a decade, with Mercedes off the pace in 2022 and not yet bringing developmental upgrades, meaning he’s a long shot for honours in Melbourne, and is available to back at 27.

Valtteri Bottas was triumphant the last time Formula 1 raced in Melbourne, in 2019, but he has since traded a title-winning team for the midfield, following his transfer from Mercedes to Alfa Romeo. It would take quite the unlikely twist for Bottas to make it a Melbourne double, and he's out at 55.

Sebastian Vettel grabbed two assured wins in 2017/18 but that was when he had front-running Ferrari machinery rather than backmarker Aston Martin equipment. He is also firmly on the backfoot after missing the first two rounds of 2022 through Covid.

Leclerc and Verstappen favourites

There’s only a sample set of two races so far this season, but quite clearly Ferrari and Red Bull are closely matched up front, and clear of the chasing pack.

Pole positions have so far been shared between Charles Leclerc and Sergio Perez – a surprise pole-winner in Saudi Arabia – while the victories have been split between Leclerc, 2.82 to win in Melbourne, and Max Verstappen, who's at 3.25.

In both Bahrain and Saudi Arabia they thrilled onlookers by going wheel-to-wheel for the win. It undoubtedly makes Leclerc, title leader by 12 points and 2.64 to win a maiden drivers crown this year, and Verstappen (2.26 for the title) as the likely contenders for victory in Melbourne, where neither has ever taken a victory.

But keep an eye out for Leclerc’s Ferrari team-mate Carlos Sainz (7.8). He has taken three successive podiums, bringing his career tally up to eight, and he is edging closer to finishing on the top step for the first time in Formula 1.

Perez’s pace in Saudi Arabia also means he can’t be discounted for an Australia win; he was comfortably leading last Sunday’s race until an ill-timed Safety Car period derailed his strategy and relegated him to fourth. 

Recommended bet

Max Verstappen to win @ 3.25