F1 Qatar Grand Prix Preview: Verstappen poised to clinch third world title

Formula 1’s 2023 season will resume this weekend in Qatar, and it is likely to be the scene for Max Verstappen to become a three-time World Champion. 

Qatar initially joined Formula 1’s calendar in 2021 as a substitute race for Australia during a season that was still affected by the pandemic and consequent travel restrictions.

By that stage, Qatar had already agreed a 10-year deal to join Formula 1’s schedule from 2023 through 2032 and this week’s event marks the first in that run, as the tiny Gulf state looks to motorsport in the wake of its duties as the host of the 2022 FIFA World Cup. 

Now Qatar is back and from 2023 onwards is a full night race.  

Lusail 

There were whispers that Qatar’s Grand Prix could take place on a temporary street circuit in capital Doha but instead the country’s sole permanent facility, the Lusail International Circuit, will be Formula 1’s home.

Lusail has been welcoming MotoGP since 2004 and it hosted its first Formula 1 Grand Prix when Qatar acted as a stand-in round during the 2021 season. 

Ahead of Formula 1’s long-term deal Lusail’s pits and paddock facilities have undergone an extensive renovation to be brought up to higher standards, with spectator capacity also increased, but the layout of the 5.4km circuit has not been altered.

Lusail is a high-speed, high-energy circuit and while it has acres of run-off that tempts drivers to stretch the limits.

All but one of Lusail’s 16 corners are taken in fourth gear or higher with a sequence of medium- and high-speed long-radius turns linked by full-throttle blasts that puts a high energy load through the tyres. Turns 12-13-14 are the circuit’s showpiece section as drivers tackle three right-hand kinks in seventh gear in rapid succession. 

Lusail also has aggressive entry and exit kerbs that drivers need to ride but must also be conscious of potential wear on tyres and the risk of damage to the aerodynamically sensitive floors. 

Sprint is back

Qatar will host F1 Sprint for the first time, marking the fourth time this year that the format has been utilised. 

F1 Sprint featured in Azerbaijan, Austria and Belgium, while after Qatar it will be run at the next event in Austin, and once more in São Paulo. 

Teams and drivers will have to be cognizant of evolving track conditions.

Drivers will only have one hour of practice, which will take place at sunset, before set-ups are locked in for the remainder of the weekend. The Sprint race and Grand Prix will take place at night, when track temperature will be lower, which affects tyre usage and degradation.

Lusail’s infrequent usage, and the prospect of sand blowing in from the desert, means the track should rubber in more than other venues as the weekend progresses, leading to greater track evolution than is usual.  

A Japan repeat?

The abundance of high-speed corners means the pecking order is likely to look similar to Japan, where Red Bull – or at least Max Verstappen – took up its usual position atop the order, with McLaren its closest challenger. 

There’s little reason to doubt Verstappen shooting for win number 14 of the season and he is poised to clinch a third world championship given the mathematical gymnastics involved.

Sergio Perez must outscore Verstappen by six points in Saturday’s Sprint – where only eight are available – and even if that unlikely situation unfolds then Verstappen will simply wrap up proceedings in Sunday’s race. 

Recommended Bets:

Back Verstappen to win the race @ 1.25 
Back Verstappen to win the sprint race @ 1.35 
Back Norris to finish on the podium in the race @ 1.66