World Cup playoff: Robin Bairner has a value play for Wales vs Ukraine

Tough match to call

Wales host Ukraine on Sunday in a World Cup playoff encounter that will decide the last UEFA participants at Qatar 2022. 

Given the situation in Ukraine, this will be a match played with a unique background, yet the visitors overcame Scotland in impressive style on Wednesday to book this opportunity. 

It promises to be a tough match to call, too. Wales are marginal 2.82 favourites to win over 90 minutes, with Ukraine on offer at 2.92. The draw is 3.15. 

Wales trying to end World Cup woe 

Wales come into this match after a 2-1 defeat in Poland in the Nations League, but it would be wrong to look too much into that result. Not only did Robert Page’s side perform well in that game, but they did so without their leading stars Gareth Bale and Aaron Ramsey. 

Meanwhile, it was their first defeat since exiting Euro 2020 following a 4-0 loss against a Denmark side that is far stronger than often given credit for.

This is a huge evening for the home side as they seek to qualify for their first World Cup finals since Sweden 1958, giving the hosts a huge incentive to make sporting history for their country. 

Wales star Gareth Bale will be hoping to lead his country to their first World Cup for 64 years when they take on Ukraine on Sunday

Ukraine seeking to complete miracle qualification

Ukraine, meanwhile, come into this match in a context that surely everyone is aware of. Their homeland is ravaged by war, with each member of the squad touched by the Russian invasion of the country. 

Against Scotland on Wednesday, the players came out for the national anthems draped in the flag of their nation and, after an initial settling in period, dominated a large portion of the game. They ran out 3-1 winners. 

But if their commitment to the cause was undoubted, there are doubts as to whether they can continue to ride a wave of emotion in Cardiff. After all, many of these players have not otherwise played competitive football since December.

There were signs of a lack of match fitness towards the end of the Hampden clash, though that was offset by the type of understanding brought by a long training camp together.

Ukraine are undefeated in eight, while they have won their last three away matches. Stretch that run to four, and they will have achieved a World Cup qualification for the ages. 

Back both teams to score 

Wales are a side that have typically raised themselves for the big occasions, largely thanks to the performances of Bale and Ramsey rallying those around them. Much will rely on this pair again. Regardless of their club form, they always seem to be at their best for their nation. 

Certainly, the home side are likely to make things tougher for their guests than Scotland did, and there is the threat of Ukraine’s lack of match readiness hurting them against a superior opponent. 

Wales to qualify at 1.98 offers promising value, while in a match that both teams will be going all-out to win, both teams to score at 2.1 looks the outstanding bet. It would have been a winner in each of Wales’ last five matches and seven of Ukraine’s last eight. 

Recommended bets 

Wales to qualify @ 1.98

BTTS @ 2.1