World Cup 2022 Tipsheet: Expect goals in Monday’s Round of 16 games

Greg Lea

5 December 2022

The knockout stages continue on Monday as Brazil and Croatia take on the remaining Asian nations at World Cup 2022 - football expert Greg Lea previews both games.

Japan v Croatia

Kick-off: 3pm Monday

Japan stunned Germany and Spain in Group E to advance in first place. Their two come-from-behind 2-1 victories over the European heavyweights were hugely impressive, and there were similarities between both matches too.

Japan have a remarkable ability to absorb opposition attacks for long periods then quickly turn the tables for a short, sharp burst of their own. Both goals against Spain came within three minutes early in the second half, after which Japan sat back again and successfully held their opponents at arm’s length.

Croatia, by contrast, were perhaps a little fortunate to get through to the round of 16. A 0-0 draw with Belgium on matchday three was enough to extend their participation, but Roberto Martinez’s men created a host of excellent opportunities late on. Had just one of those efforts gone in, Croatia would have been sent home.

Japan will look to play with energy and intensity, while Croatia prefer to slow the tempo and get their passing game going via the gifted midfield trio of Luka Modric, Mateo Kovacic and Marcelo Brozovic. Interestingly, Japan are yet to keep a clean sheet at this tournament.

The Samurai Blue may have more of the ball here than they did against Germany and Spain, but do not expect Hajime Moriyasu’s side to significantly alter their strategy. Japan will be happy to give up a fair amount of possession, before springing forward quickly on the counter-attack.

Croatia are currently favourites to win this game at 2.6, but it will probably be a closer match than the odds suggest. Both teams to score is the way to go.

Prediction: Both teams to score @ 2.1

Brazil v South Korea

Kick-off: 7pm Monday

Brazil may have lost to Cameroon last time out – their first ever defeat by an African nation at the World Cup – but it did not really matter. Tite’s team had already sealed their place in the Round of 16 and they still advanced as Group G winners despite the loss to the Indomitable Lions.

As a result of their qualification for the knockouts with a game to spare, Brazil were able to rest several regular starters against Cameroon. That means many of their key men will be much fresher than their South Korean counterparts, whose fate was not determined until second-half stoppage time in their meeting with Portugal on Friday.

Brazil did not set the group stage alight in the manner many anticipated, but they were nevertheless impressive. The Selecao barely gave up a shot against Serbia or Switzerland, never mind a goal. Defensive solidity is hugely important in tournament football and it is one of Brazil’s biggest strengths.

On this occasion, though, perhaps the attack will outshine the defence. South Korea did well to qualify for the knockout phase ahead of Uruguay and Ghana, but this is by far the biggest test they have faced yet.

With the likes of Richarlison, Raphinha and Vinicius Junior well rested, and Neymar fit again, Brazil should prove too strong for the Taeguk Warriors. Back the five-time world champions to march on to the quarter-finals.

Prediction: Brazil and over 2.5 goals @ 2.12