Nations League: why Spain vs Portugal could be a low-scoring affair

Successful nations

Spain and Portugal begin their UEFA Nations League campaign on Wednesday with something of an Iberian derby. 

This is only the third edition of the competition, yet both countries have enjoyed some success in the recent past. Portugal, of course, won the inaugural title in 2019 while Spain impressed in November 2021 as they reached the final only to be undone by world champions France.

La Roja are 2.2 to begin this new tournament with a victory over their neighbours, while Portugal can be backed at 3.8. A draw is on offer at 3.4.

Roja rejuvenated

Spain under Luis Enrique have been a rejuvenated force. They made an unexpectedly strong run to the semi-finals of Euro 2020, where they were only beaten by eventual champions Italy on penalties, then subsequently exacted revenge on the Azzurri at the Nations League finals. 

Indeed, they have been virtually blemish free for the best part of a year, reinvigorated by an influx of fresh young talent that has the country dreaming once again of the highs they hit around 2010, when they won a World Cup and two European Championships. 

Portugal represent familiar opponents to them, with the nations have met twice in international friendlies in the last two years. Both of these games finished scoreless, but this encounter promises greater excitement. 

Seven of Spain's last 13 matches have seen under 2.5 goals scored

Doubts over Portugal 

Portugal have booked their place at the 2022 World Cup, but not without a struggle. An away draw against Ireland followed by a shock home loss against Serbia plunged them into a playoff, in which they overcame Turkey and North Macedonia at home, having managed to avoid Italy thanks to the latter’s shock victory over them. 

Although Portugal have lost only one of their last nine internationals, winning seven, there are signs that this is a team on the decline. This was evident at Euro 2020, where they struggled through the group stage before losing out to Belgium. They checked out with one win from four matches - a poor defence of the title they had won in France.

Indeed, they have not faced a significant test since then, so a trip to Spain represents a chance to prove their doubters wrong.

Few goals in store 

Although Portugal have been renowned as a drab team under Fernando Santos, their competitive matches lately have produced goals. Indeed, since March 2021, nine of their 12 fixtures with something riding on them have seen more than 2.5 goals scored. 

Curiously, Spain’s tendency to be involved in low-scoring matches is higher – seven of their last 13 have had under 2.5 goals. Indeed, the home side is generally lacking in firepower. Only Alvaro Morata, Ferran Torres, Jordi Alba and Pablo Sarabia have more than five international strikes.

This promises to be a tight match, so backing Spain to win and Under 2.5 goals at 5 offers tempting value. 

Portugal, though, have a squad packed with quality and, of course, boast the X-factor that is Cristiano Ronaldo. Without any top-class opponents for the best part of a year, it is difficult to gauge exactly where they are, so simply backing against goals appears the safest bet. 

Recommended bet

Under 2.5 goals @ 1.78