Nations League: why free-scoring Netherlands can take advantage of Welsh hangover

A Page in history

Wales host the Netherlands in Nations League action on Wednesday and are seeking to avoid a hangover following their World Cup qualification.

A single own goal was sufficient to carry Robert Page’s side past Ukraine and into Qatar 2022, which sparked much celebration as it ended a 64-year wait for a place at such a level. 

Wales, though, are underdogs at 7.2 to back that up with another victory against the Dutch, who are 1.56 favourites. A draw is on offer at 4.3.

World Cup hangover for Wales?

This is Wales’ second Nations League match of their Group A campaign, having been edged 2-1 by Poland with what was largely a fringe side last week. It was a strong performance from an XI that was notably without Gareth Bale, Ben Davies and Aaron Ramsey. 

After treating that encounter gingerly, they can afford to attack this game in a more wholehearted manner, although some rotation after the high of Sunday should not be discounted. This is particularly the case as there is a match against Belgium to follow on Saturday – that will be their third home encounter in six days.

This may be Wales’ first foray into Nations League Group A, but their objective for the international break has already been achieved. How this is manifest in the team’s on-field performance is yet to be determined, but it would be little surprise to see a pressure-free but fatigued team on display. 

Memphis Depay was on target twice in the Netherlands' 4-1 win in Belgium at the weekend

Oranje on a roll 

Netherlands, meanwhile, are resurgent under Louis van Gaal, having gone undefeated in 10 games following the appointment of the former Barcelona, Ajax and Manchester United manager. The latest of these was a spectacular 4-1 win over Belgium last weekend. Memphis Depay was the star as he netted twice, while Steven Bergwijn and Denzel Dumfries were also on target. 

Indeed, the Dutch have picked up three very impressive results in 2022 thus far. They hammered a Denmark side that beat world champions France last weekend, while they also picked up a draw against Germany. Both these fixtures were friendlies, but it was a message they backed up in Brussels. 

Nations League runners-up in 2018/19, Oranje are well on their way to returning to the finals in this edition. 

Dutch are goal crazy

Netherlands have scored at least two goals in 14 of their last 17 international matches, dating back to 2020. Given the short odds on them getting a victory, there is better value to be found in backing them to continue that trend. It is available at 1.71.

Clean sheets for Oranje away from home are not easy to come by, though. In their last seven away matches, they have only shut out Latvia and Gibraltar. Wales to score at least once at 1.74 is worth consideration, then, but Netherlands to win and both teams to find the net at 3.6 is perhaps the outstanding bet.

Recommended bets

Netherlands Over 1.5 @ 1.71

Netherlands/BTTS @ 3.6