Nations League Tips: Can France get firing or will they be relegated?

The Nations League returns this week with all four places in the finals still up for grabs. Greg Lea previews four of the biggest matches taking place on Thursday.

Croatia v Denmark

Kick-off: 7.45pm Thursday 

Denmark have a two-point lead over Croatia at the top of Group A1, so everything is still to play for here. Kasper Hjulmand’s side will qualify for the finals with a win in Zagreb, but a draw or defeat would send the battle for top spot to matchday six – and that could give Croatia the edge, given the Danes must travel to France.

Back-to-back 1-0 away victories over France and Denmark were what brought Croatia into serious contention. Playing in front of their own fans on Thursday makes Croatia the favourites with Smarkets traders – and I fancy them to get the job done.

Selection: Croatia to win @ 2.56

France v Austria

Kick-off: 7.45pm Thursday

France are the reigning Nations League champions but they are staring relegation in the face as we reach the conclusion of the 2022/23 group stage. Two draws and two defeats in June has left les Bleus at the foot of the standings in Group A1, and defeat by Austria on Thursday would condemn them to demotion to League B.

That is a fate France will be keen to avoid, but even more important is the need to rebuild confidence ahead of the World Cup. France can no longer qualify for the Nations League Finals, but victories over Austria and Denmark in the next few days would at least brighten the mood around the camp two months out from Qatar.

Didier Deschamps’ men have looked incoherent and dysfunctional so far in this group, though, with their star-studded attack failing to shine as a collective. Austria will set out to frustrate them here, so a low-scoring encounter could be on the cards.

Selection: Under 2.5 goals @ 2.1

Poland v Netherlands

Kick-off: 7.45pm Thursday

A win in Warsaw would put the Netherlands within touching distance of a place in next summer’s finals. The Dutch have a three-point lead over Belgium as things stand, and a thumping 4-1 victory in Brussels means they also have a significant advantage over their neighbours as far as the head-to-head record is concerned.

With three more points to their name than Wales, Poland are not yet safe from relegation. No team in League A has conceded as many goals as Czesław Michniewicz’s side, whose backline has been breached on ten occasions.

The Netherlands frontline will therefore be licking their lips at the prospect of facing Poland. The hosts possess their own attacking firepower of course, with Robert Lewandowski in fine form for Barcelona, but Louis van Gaal’s men should prove too strong.

Selection: Netherlands to win @ 2.02

Turkey v Luxembourg

Kick-off: 7.45pm Thursday

Formerly one of the whipping boys of Europe, Luxembourg have made significant progress in recent years. The national team from a country of 632,000 people amassed nine points in their 2022 World Cup qualification campaign, which included a remarkable victory over the Republic of Ireland in Dublin.

Luxembourg have fared well in the 2022/23 Nations League too. They sit second in Group C1 after winning two and drawing one of their first four matches.

Their only loss was at the hands of Turkey, who have already wrapped up top spot and promotion to League B. That could prompt the home team to experiment in this game, which may give Luxembourg a glimmer of hope. They are unlikely to avoid defeat in Istanbul, but backing goals at both ends could be an astute selection.

Selection: Both teams to score @ 2.16

Recommended trades

Croatia v Denmark: Croatia to win @ 2.56
France v Austria: Under 2.5 goals @ 2.1
Poland v Netherlands: Netherlands to win @ 2.02
Turkey v Luxembourg: Both teams to score @ 2.16