Nations League: 'Don't expect an away win' - Robin Bairner on Belgium vs Netherlands

Belgians favourites in Brussels

Belgium and Netherlands kick off their respective Nations League campaigns on Friday with a meeting in Brussels.

The home side have slipped from their perch as FIFA’s No.1 ranked side, having been overtaken by Brazil in the March list, while the Dutch sneak into the top 10. 

It is the Belgians who are the 2.34 favourites, while a draw is on offer at 3.6. Meanwhile, the Netherlands can be backed at 3.2. 

Belgium seeking momentum

Belgium have been in a golden age of international football for the country, but they have had little tangible to show for it. Their run at Euro 2020 was ended in the quarter-finals by Italy, and they are seeking to build up a head of steam before the World Cup with a strong showing in the Nations League. 

They finished fourth in the previous edition of the competition but could have achieved more. For example, they led 2-0 against France in the semi-finals before going down to a 3-2 defeat. They subsequently lost to Italy. 

After only two wins in their previous six games – against Estonia and Burkina Faso – it is important for Roberto Martinez’s side to regain some momentum, and what better way than a victory against their fiercest international rivals?

Belgium manager Roberto Martinez has seen his side win all five of their Nations League fixtures played at home

Oranje building for the future

The Netherlands, meanwhile, have been on a strong run of form since surprisingly losing out in the last 16 of Euro 2020 against the Czech Republic. Following that defeat, they have won six of their last nine internationals, including victories over Turkey, Norway and Denmark. Most recently, they drew with Germany. 

Louis van Gaal has done a steady rebuilding job with this group, and the aim is to peak in Qatar. The Nations League can be a useful tool in that challenge, giving his side the opportunity to test themselves against genuinely elite rivals on at least six occasions between now and September. 

After finishing the 2019 edition of the tournament as runners-up, they finished second to Italy in the group stage last time around, losing only one of their six games in a pool in which Bosnia and Poland were also present.

Belgium to maintain undefeated run 

Belgium’s record against the Dutch is strong. They are undefeated in their last eight games, although six of these have been draws and the last seven have all been friendlies. This is the first competitive match these sides have played since 1998. 

These are both teams that like to attack, suggesting that there should be plenty of goalmouth action for the fans to enjoy, while the history between these nations shows that both teams have scored in six their last seven matches. Indeed, given these results, backing the draw and both teams to score at 4.2 would appear to offer excellent value. 

The Dutch, meanwhile, have won only one of seven Nations League matches not played on home soil. Belgium have won all of their five home fixtures, so don’t expect an away win in this one. 

Recommended bets

Belgium or draw @ 1.38

BTTS/Yes @ 1.65

Draw/BTTS @ 4.2