Monday Night Football: Disciplined Liverpool makes cards bet look enticing

Manchester United host Liverpool on Monday night in a blockbuster Premier League matchup between two sides that desperately need a win to get their season up and running.

Erik ten Hag is still waiting on his first point as United boss, having overseen shock defeats against Brighton and Brentford. Jurgen Klopp’s men, meanwhile, have drawn against Fulham and Crystal Palace.

It is a sign of the Red Devils’ decline that, even at Old Trafford, they are 5.6 outsiders for the victory this evening. Liverpool are strong 1.64 favourites to win and close the gap to two points between themselves and City. A third successive draw for Klopp’s side is priced at 4.5. 

Good news at last

After weeks of negativity, there has finally been some good news for United fans in recent days, with the announcement that they have brokered a deal for Real Madrid midfielder Casemiro. However, the Brazilian is not eligible to play in this fixture, even if a move is finalised before kick off. 

Nevertheless, Ten Hag will hope the arrival of Casemiro will have a knock-on effect on the remainder of the squad, which was left mentally battered after a thumping defeat at Brentford.

There is still pressure hanging over his team, though. Defeat on Monday against their greatest rivals would see the Red Devils lose their first three matches of the season for the first time in 36 years and just the third time in their history.

Liverpool seek history

If United are seeking to avoid an unwanted record, Liverpool are looking to make history in a positive way. Never before have the Reds won on three successive trips to Old Trafford, but they stand on the brink of doing just that, having won 4-2 in May 2021 then 5-0 in a memorable match last October shortly before the end of Ole Gunnar Solskjaer’s reign.

Mo Salah: scored in Liverpool's 4-2 win at Old Trafford last season

Indeed, this has been a thoroughly one-sided rivalry in recent years. Liverpool have lost only one of their last 12 Premier League matches against United, while the last three fixtures between the clubs have ended in their favour by an aggregate scoreline of 13-2.

Meanwhile, Klopp and Ten Hag will rekindle a personal rivalry that began in 2020-21 when Liverpool twice beat the Dutchman’s Ajax side 1-0 in the Champions League group stages.

Red Devils to see yellow

Despite a couple of draws to kick off their campaign, it’s hard to overlook Liverpool for the victory, in part because Ten Hag’s side have been so desperate in their two Premier League fixtures so far.

The Reds have won four of the last five league matches between the clubs by at least two goals, and backing them at -1.5 on the Asian Handicap is possible at 2.48. However, given their uncertain start, this price looks a little skinny.

Elsewhere, this is a matchup that has produced plenty of goals in recent seasons, with each of the last four fixtures producing at least four each. That sequence is 2.4 to continue, which may be good value if Ten Hag’s team pass the ball out of defence as they did against Brentford.

It may also be worth backing United to have more bookings than the Reds. Liverpool have only seen one yellow card in the last three matches between these clubs; with that in mind, 1.82 on the Red Devils to have more cautions looks excellent value – especially as Liverpool’s fiery forward Darwin Nunez is suspended. 

Recommended trades

Back Liverpool to win @ 1.64
Back Man Utd most cards @ 1.82