Manchester City v Liverpool: Carabao Cup preview and predictions

Tom Collins

20 December 2022

How about this for a post-World Cup barnstormer to get you back into the swing of domestic football? Reigning Premier League champions Manchester City will host cup holders Liverpool in a mouth-watering Carabao Cup clash on Thursday.

This Round of 16 tie features the two winning-most League Cup sides in history: Liverpool have lifted the trophy a record nine times since 1961, while Manchester City sit just one back on eight. Aston Villa, Chelsea and Manchester United share distant third place with five apiece.

Given the history, whoever ends up progressing from this match-up would be considered the strong favourite to add to their haul. Let’s get stuck into some analysis.

Head-to-head record

Manchester City have faced Liverpool on 212 occasions throughout history - the first meeting came all the way back in 1893 when the Reds were successful by one goal to nil. Liverpool own a healthy lead in the series with 108 victories compared to City’s 58, while there have also been 56 draws.

You might imagine that a good portion of City’s success has come under the tutelage of Pep Guardiola, however that’s not really the case. Since the Spaniard took charge in 2016, City have won just five of the 18 encounters between the two sides and have lost their last three.

Pep Guardiola: won five of his 18 matches against Liverpool since taking charge at Man City

Jurgen Klopp has generally held an edge over Guardiola, but this game is completely different to the rest. Not only have the coaches had a whopping 40 days to think over and finalise their tactics while the World Cup has taken place, but they will also have to use creativity and inspiration to decide on their final line-ups.

Expect different line-ups

Given the stature of Liverpool and Manchester City, it was no surprise to see the majority of regular starters for both teams line up for their respective nations in Qatar during the 2022 FIFA World Cup.

Erling Haaland aside, City’s 12 most-used players this season travelled to the middle east and have returned home at intervals since the knockout stages began. Meanwhile, just seven of Liverpool’s regular appearance makers journeyed abroad while the likes of Mo Salah, Harvey Elliott, Roberto Firmino and Andrew Robertson - four of Liverpool’s most influential players - stayed at home.

That could easily have an effect on the outcome of this match. Fresher legs, the lack of disappointment (or joy in the case of the Argentinians!) and the ability to stay focused on the team’s structure and tactics could all play in the favour of Liverpool.

Don’t expect to see a full-strength team from either side. Not only has the World Cup just ended, but, despite recent success from both teams in this competition, that has come as a result of depth rather than complete desire to go all the way. Squad players and youngsters are expected to fill the starting positions for both teams, with some stars littered in amongst them.

So, what’s the verdict?

This game is extremely difficult to call given the unconfirmed starting line-ups at the time of writing. As previously mentioned, Liverpool have held an edge in recent matches, though I’m sure the majority of players are just looking to shake off some rust with the Premier League set to resume on Boxing Day.

As a result, I would be swaying towards the ‘both teams to score’ market for a pre-Christmas banker. Liverpool and Manchester City have netted in nine of the last 11 games and are the top two scoring teams in the country over the last three seasons. Expect goals from both sides.