Germany vs England: Goals at a premium for Munich showdown

England against Germany is always a match to be savoured in the international football calendar, but Tuesday’s Nations League match between the two in Munich will be especially meaningful after neither side won their opening encounter.

Germany were held to a 1-1 draw against European champions Italy in Bologna, while England were surprisingly beaten 1-0 in Hungary. The home side are 2.3 to get the victory, while Gareth Southgate’s Three Lions can be backed at 3.5. Our traders rate the draw at 3.4.

Aiming for better

Germany’s Euro 2020 campaign was ended at the last-16 stage by England, but that 2-0 defeat at Wembley marks the last occasion they suffered a loss on the international scene. Since then, they have won eight matches and drawn two more. These wins, however, have not come against impressive opponents.

During their draw against the Azzurri at the weekend, they had to come from behind to get a point, with Joshua Kimmich levelling shortly after Lorenzo Pellegrini’s 70^th-minute opener. Although Hansi Flick’s side dominate the ball, they notably lacked penetration to their play.

Scope to rotate into a strong state is limited. Flick used his strongest available side in Italy and is unlikely to make wholesale changes to his starting XI for this match.

Gareth Southgate eyeing a response after Hungary defeat.

Strong run ended

England took a different approach to their clash in Hungary. Manager Southgate handed debuts to James Justin and Jarrod Bowen as he kept several strong options in reserve for this clash against Germany. In the end, it was a gamble that failed as a controversial penalty condemned the Three Lions to a surprise defeat.

Such setbacks have been rare for England in recent years. Indeed, their previous defeat had been against Italy in the final of Euro 2020 – and that was only by virtue of a defeat on penalty kicks.

Their run in that competition included a convincing win over Germany, in which Raheem Sterling and Harry Kane both struck in the closing 15 minutes. Their record against their great rivals, meanwhile, has been even in recent years. In the last seven meetings between the nations, each has won three and there has been one draw.

England’s impressive record in Germany

England’s record in Germany has been strong recently. The Three Lions have won three of their last four at the home of their opponents and, on paper, should be their match in this encounter, especially having rested key figures at the weekend. Backing Southgate’s men with a handicap of +0.5 offers promising value.

Goals, meanwhile, are likely to be hard to come by. Only one of the last five between these nations has seen more than 2.5, while none of Germany’s three fixtures in 2022 have produced more than two goals. Similarly, England looks short of ideas against Hungary, and while an improvement is likely, this is likely to be a match in which few risks are taken.

Recommended bets

England +0.5 @ 1.73

Under 2.5 goals @ 1.83